090
FXUS63 KLMK 081812
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
212 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
* DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUIETLY STREAMING OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. AT THE SFC, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN NOTED IN SOME OF OUR
TYPICAL SPOTS. FOR TODAY, EXPECT A SIMILAR FORECAST TO YESTERDAY,
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS HITTING THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, ALONG
WITH A DENSE CU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, WHICH
WILL HELP SUPPORT A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SOME ISOLATED POP-UPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL ENOUGH TO KEEP LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE GOING FOR TODAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, EVEN THOUGH WE DON'T HAVE MUCH OF A TRIGGER,
ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD BE SLOW MOVING BUT COULD DUMP SOME
HEALTHY RAINFALL. OVERALL THOUGH, EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO HELP
LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
===== SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT =====
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN US DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A WARM RETURN FLOW REGIME
INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WHILE THE WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXIS SHOULD BE SITUATED FROM MISSOURI TO THE GREAT LAKES, BEING ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THAT PLUME COULD RESULT IN OUR SFC DEWPOINTS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THIS COMBINATION OF
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH
A FEW SPOTS HITTING 100 NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.
STRONG SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO DAILY AFTERNOON CU FIELD
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED, SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE COULD ALLOW A FEW CU TO BECOME AGITATED ENOUGH IN A WELL
DESTABILIZED ENVIRONMENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, AND FOLKS SHOULD EXPECT A DRY
WEEKEND.
SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TOO, WITH LOWS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKYCOVER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL SPOTS.
===== EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK =====
AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CANADA DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL US. AN
ATTENDANT SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SOME MOTIVATION, AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY. OUR MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH THE FRONT WILL
BE STILL BE LOCATED QUITE A DISTANCE AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT, ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
HIGHER PRECIP PROBS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER, DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, AND NOT ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH. WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION, SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING WILL RAMP UP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE MID-
WEEK. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPECT TO REACH THE LOW 90S, THOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK DUE TO MEAGER LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES. SLOW MOVING, HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AT PLAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE POSSIBLE, ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LOT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES TOO.
WITH NO ACTUAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE FORECAST, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
THE SMALLEST CHANCE FOR A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. ALREADY LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL GO NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...KDW
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