875
FXUS63 KLMK 091912
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW SITS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
WHILE TO OUR EAST, A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST, AND TO OUR WEST, A SURFACE LOW SITS OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING OUR WINDS LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH, BUT SOME VARIABILITY HAS HAD WINDS RANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY COVERING THE CWA, BUT MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE HAS LIMITED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BETWEEN THE HIGH LCLS AND MID-LEVEL INVERSION
OF THE SUBSIDENCE, SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE REALLY LIMITED.
TONIGHT, THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AS WINDS EASE TO NEAR CALM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER US, BUT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE TROUGH AND CO-LOCATED FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. IT'S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PULSE
CONVECTION, BUT THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN, LIMITING
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
==== SUNDAY NIGHT =====
THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
===== MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY =====
TROUGHING WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GULF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DEW POINTS AND PWATS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. TUESDAY-FRIDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BECOME AREA WIDE EACH AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK SHEAR TO MODEST CAPE AND
PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWS.
===== FRIDAY AND SATURDAY =====
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE REGION
WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. COULD SEE DECREASED POPS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED CHANCES. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, INCREASED HEIGHTS DUE TO RIDGING, AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS, COULD SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN THE AFTERNOON.
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST IS ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. IF THIS FEATURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD, THIS COULD BRING
A FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT, WINDS EASE TO NEAR CALM AS SKIES CLEAR. TOMORROW, SOME
VARIABILITY WILL CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT WINDS, BUT A GENERAL
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...KDW
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