184
FXUS63 KLMK 120123
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEFORE THE MID 90S RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES NEAR 100
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
* SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY, BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
IT IS ANOTHER WARM EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE BLUEGRASS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WITH AREAS
BETWEEN LEXINGTON AND CINCINNATI SEEING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW-TO-MID 80S AS OF 01Z, WITH URBAN HEAT ISLANDS REMAINING
WARMER THAN OUTLYING AREAS.
TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY, WITH
A 20 KT 925 MB JET EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LLJ, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN KY. FOR OUR AREA, WILL CARRY
MOSTLY SILENT POPS, BUT MENTION A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME, WITH SMALL CHANGES MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND POPS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF THE CURRENT PATTERN THAT HAS SEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CONUS, ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS PLACES
THE CWA UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LOWER
RELATIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, AROUND 1.25-1.5". HIGHER VALUES
CAN BE FOUND TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA, CENTRAL ILLINOIS, DOWN THROUGH THE
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE AREA, AND EAST THROUGH KNOXVILLE. A CHANCE FOR
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE, BUT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT VERTICAL
GROWTH TO ANY ACTIVITY.
TONIGHT, EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE, ENDING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION, BUT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 1.5" AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL WORK NORTH OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM TENNESSEE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S WITH A FEW SEEING
THE UPPER 60S, BUT MORE LOW 70S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF
TRAPPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURGING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN FLOWING NORTH AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2"
WHERE THE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MEETS THE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ADDED
MOISTURE AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PICKING UP SPEED AND MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN,
ALLOWING TALLER STORMS TO DEVELOP. WE STILL LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHEAR, SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. THE HIGH PWATS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PUSH
EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, BUT
WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED. SOME HAIL
AND ADDITIONAL GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE CWA AS IT FLATTENS BEFORE ROCKING TO THE EAST AND
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BUILD BACK FARTHER NORTH INTO INDIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE PWATS NEAR 2" DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES TO THE WEST. NORTH OF THE FRONT,
VALUES DROP BELOW 1.5". CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SEE ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND HAS IMPROVED AS THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY LOOK TO GET
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS HAS LOWERED DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES UNDER
LOTS OF SUNSHINE BUMP UP TO THE MID 90S. THIS WOULD RETURN HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100 IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
THIS EVENING, CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE ALL TAF
SITES REMAINED DRY OR ONLY RECEIVED TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY,
WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TUESDAY MORNING. TONIGHT,
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW. WOULD
EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A BROKEN CUMULUS LAYER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WHILE CEILINGS COULD BE CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS
INITIALLY AT BWG, WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING FOR 3-5 KFT BASES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON;
WE'LL HANDLE THIS CHANCE WITH PROB30 FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5-10 KT DURING THE DAYTIME
TUESDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG
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