943
FXUS63 KLMK 121058
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND HUMID, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, THOUGH SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
* HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO
TODAY. THIS PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST FROM KANSAS
ACROSS MISSOURI. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN S TO SW FLOW IS NOTED IN THE
LOWER TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE 1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE FROM MID-MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE DRY. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND AND DRIFT NORTHWARD. A BRIEF SHOWER LOOKS
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WESTERN KY THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE EXTENDING INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA (E.G. OHIO, HANCOCK
COUNTIES).
RAIN CHANCES WILL TICK UPWARD SLIGHTLY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A HEALTHY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. WITHOUT FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT,
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCATTERED AND SOMEWHAT
RANDOM. HOWEVER, AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGING ALOFT AND RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,
THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS QUITE LOW.
TONIGHT, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE MID-
MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MO, IL, IN, AND MI. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST
AIRMASS AND CLOSER APPROACH OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT. LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY ACTIVE
DAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLOODING. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE LATEST DATA POINTS TO A DRYING TREND FOR THURSDAY, WITH DRIER
AIR AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KY.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING A STRETCH OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 100
AT TIMES. THE HEAT APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING,
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. MAINLY DRY AND VFR WEATHER APPEARS
LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. MORE IMPACTFUL WILL LIKELY BE A LAYER OF LOW
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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