105
FXUS63 KLMK 130127
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND HUMID, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, THOUGH SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
* HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65. ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS WANING AND CURRENT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE STRONGER
FORCING AND A BIT MORE INSTABILITY REMAINS.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA TO DIMINISH. STRONGER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA, MAINLY ACROSS
DUBOIS, ORANGE, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRY TO REFIRE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY LATER THIS EVENING. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THIS, THOUGH THE 3K NAM IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSED. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING
MAY OCCUR, THOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS
AROUND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND FADE AS DIURNAL WARMING IS LOST, BUT THIS COULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS IT PULLS AN
EMBEDDED COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CWA. AS POOLED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE NIGHT. NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW SHEAR, BUT ADDED POCKETS OF FOG COULD RESULT
FROM THE ADDED MOISTURE ON THE GROUND. MANY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 CAN EXPECT SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH THE COLD
FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT MILD LAPSE RATES AND
NO SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUB-SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FROM PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LIGHTNING. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THURSDAY, THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM. THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND FARTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AND BLUEGRASS REGIONS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN TODAY OR TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY).
BY FRIDAY, THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GETS PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH EAST FROM THE OZARKS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY IN
THE 90S ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND, AND
WITH DEW POINTS THAT COULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S, HEAT INDICES
COULD REACH TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE 100-103 RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION, MAINLY JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF KSDF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN. HOWEVER, KSDF COULD BE IMPACTED BY
SOME CONVECTION THROUGH 13/02Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-EVENING. OVERNIGHT,
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION OUT ACROSS
SE IL WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT KHNB AND KSDF BETWEEN 13/03-
13/08Z. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A PROB30 GROUP AT KSDF TO HIGHLIGHT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HERE. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT SKIES LOOK TO
BECOME OVERCAST WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD
MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION.....MJ
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