914
FXUS63 KLMK 130553
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
153 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND HUMID, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, THOUGH SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
* HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65. ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS WANING AND CURRENT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE STRONGER
FORCING AND A BIT MORE INSTABILITY REMAINS.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA TO DIMINISH. STRONGER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA, MAINLY ACROSS
DUBOIS, ORANGE, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRY TO REFIRE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY LATER THIS EVENING. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THIS, THOUGH THE 3K NAM IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSED. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING
MAY OCCUR, THOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS
AROUND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND FADE AS DIURNAL WARMING IS LOST, BUT THIS COULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS IT PULLS AN
EMBEDDED COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CWA. AS POOLED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE NIGHT. NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW SHEAR, BUT ADDED POCKETS OF FOG COULD RESULT
FROM THE ADDED MOISTURE ON THE GROUND. MANY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 CAN EXPECT SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH THE COLD
FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT MILD LAPSE RATES AND
NO SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUB-SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FROM PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LIGHTNING. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THURSDAY, THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM. THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND FARTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AND BLUEGRASS REGIONS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN TODAY OR TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY).
BY FRIDAY, THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GETS PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH EAST FROM THE OZARKS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY IN
THE 90S ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND, AND
WITH DEW POINTS THAT COULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S, HEAT INDICES
COULD REACH TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE 100-103 RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
JUST HAVE SOME ISOLATED TSRA NEAR BWG, WHICH WILL PASS TO THE EAST
OF THAT TERMINAL QUICKLY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT
VCSH AT LEX/RGA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EITHER. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR STRATUS THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME MVFR STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY, AND
THESE LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO EXPAND BETWEEN 06-12Z. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE ISN'T SOLD ON THE LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR EVOLUTION, HOWEVER.
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOWER AT SDF AND BWG, WITH RELATIVELY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT LEX/RGA. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST LIKELY IN VICINITY OF BWG,
LEX, AND RGA.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW
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