784
FXUS63 KLMK 140231
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1031 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW, THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
* HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM JUST NORTH OF BOWLING GREEN EASTWARD TOWARD MOUNT VERNON. WE
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST US
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS THE SAME,
HEAVY RAINFALL, THANKS TO PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.50" TO
2.00". LOCALIZED FLOODING, LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WE SEE DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT AND WEAK OVER THE AREA SO THERE
APPEARS LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL KY AND THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IN. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING, LIKE LAST NIGHT, SOME ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS
WE GO OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE AND HOW
DENSE THE FOG IS WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED ON WHERE IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WE CAN GET OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF DAY BUT
THE POPS AS WELL AS LOCATION OF RAIN/STORM LOOKS TO BE LOWER (20-
30%) AS WELL AS FURTHER SOUTH WITH AREAS FROM LEXINGTON TO
LOUISVILLE AND POINTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IN LOOK TO REMAIN
MAINLY DRY.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S AND HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, RIDGING WILL EXPAND
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY BUT HOT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM THE
LOW 90S ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY SUNDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
SEEING IT FEEL LIKE 100.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL WEAKEN SOME FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WORKS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN IN AND KY BUT HOW FAR SOUTH IT REACHES IS
STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND PROXIMITY OF SFC
BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
WEAK SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A SMATTERING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WERE NOTED
ON THE REGION 88-D'S AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD STILL FORCE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING. WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING, STORMS WILL END RATHER QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE WITH THE FORECAST
THINKING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SITES TO DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE DUE TO
FOG, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SDF WHICH LOOKS TO STAY AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR NOW. THE OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY CALLS FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM....BTN
AVIATION.....MJ
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