532
FXUS63 KLMK 141734
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
134 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO FIRE OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY OVER MUHLENBERG AND AROUND TODD, LOGAN AND
BUTLER COUNTIES. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER
THIS AREA THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THAT THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA AND HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF
FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND THIN CIRRUS. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT TO CALM,
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS WELL UNDERWAY IN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE
CLEARING. DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING,
PARTICULARLY IN FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS LOW-LYING AREAS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY STAY DRY GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND STABLE LOW
LEVELS. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL IN FROM THE
NORTH, AND PW VALUES DIP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR TODAY. AS THE
SURFACE WARMS AND DESTABILIZES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WEAK
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL KY. SPOTTY ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET.
OVERALL, THE DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR MOST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A STRETCH OF HOT, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE "COOLEST" DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, LIKELY ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT TO SPILL SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TOWERING CU HAS BEEN FORMING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY BETWEEN
3500 TO 5000 FT. WHILE CLOUDS ARE FORMING, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORMING AROUND BWG TO RGA. NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS OVER THE AREA AND IS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN
NATURE BUT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT THE WEATHER IMPACTS TURN TO THE RETURN OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT THERE COULD BE SPOTS SO THAT WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. FOR TOMORROW,
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS BUT STILL THE ISOLATED THREAT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON CU FORMING AND LIGHT WINDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BTN
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