137
FXUS63 KLMK 141927
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
* HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TOMORROW AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH DAYS ARE AROUND 105 DEGREES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH HELPING TO
INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.9, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM ANY STORMS
WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, ONCE WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL START TO DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL RANGE FROM
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS, AREAS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION TO THE
LOW 70S FURTHER TO THE WEST.
BY TOMORROW, THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE INCREASE HEIGHTS WILL START THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH
OF HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT GOES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MOST WILL
SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 TO EVEN THE LOW 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS DUE TO DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70. STRONG, AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE HEAT AND THAT HEAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
COULD BE HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S BUT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 105 EACH DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDWEEK AS
ERIN STARTS TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS BERMUDA.
THIS COULD BE THE WILD CARD IN THE OVERALL FORECAST BUT FOR NOW, AS
ERIN MAKES THE TURN NORTHWARD, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND A
RETURN OF DAILY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TOWERING CU HAS BEEN FORMING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY BETWEEN
3500 TO 5000 FT. WHILE CLOUDS ARE FORMING, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORMING AROUND BWG TO RGA. NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS OVER THE AREA AND IS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN
NATURE BUT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT THE WEATHER IMPACTS TURN TO THE RETURN OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT THERE COULD BE SPOTS SO THAT WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. FOR TOMORROW,
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS BUT STILL THE ISOLATED THREAT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON CU FORMING AND LIGHT WINDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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