714
FXUS63 KLMK 150538
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
* HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TOMORROW AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH DAYS ARE AROUND 105 DEGREES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH HELPING TO
INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.9, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM ANY STORMS
WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, ONCE WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL START TO DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL RANGE FROM
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS, AREAS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION TO THE
LOW 70S FURTHER TO THE WEST.
BY TOMORROW, THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE INCREASE HEIGHTS WILL START THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH
OF HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT GOES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MOST WILL
SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 TO EVEN THE LOW 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS DUE TO DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70. STRONG, AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE HEAT AND THAT HEAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
COULD BE HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S BUT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 105 EACH DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDWEEK AS
ERIN STARTS TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS BERMUDA.
THIS COULD BE THE WILD CARD IN THE OVERALL FORECAST BUT FOR NOW, AS
ERIN MAKES THE TURN NORTHWARD, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND A
RETURN OF DAILY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, AND MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY AT HNB AND BWG. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
HNB AND BWG. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SCT THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING. A SCT AFTERNOON CU FIELD AROUND 5
KFT IS EXPECTED AFTER 16-17Z FRI. VERY ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW
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