719
FXUS63 KLMK 150748
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND HUMID THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105+ ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
* A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ALONG WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
CONDITIONS ARE DRY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER. A
PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVER FAR SOUTHERN
IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY, WHILE THIN CIRRUS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KY. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED, PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEYS
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DRAPED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, WHERE KY MESONET WINDS
ARE CALM. SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNRISE, AND
THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS.
TODAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST, AROUND THE RIDGE, ACROSS
MICHIGAN AND OHIO. A RELATIVELY DRIER COLUMN, ALONG WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 10%.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TICK UPWARD BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH CALM WINDS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AS WELL, THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP OFF BY TUESDAY. A STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ON SUNDAY, THERE IS
A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST, BUT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
HEADWAY INTO OUR AREA.
SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TOUCHING 100+ LOOK
MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
PARTS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID
90S FOR MOST, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO 100-105+.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP UPWARD ACROSS THE
BOARD. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105+ WILL BE
POSSIBLE, RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT
ILLNESSES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK TOOL,
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A BROADER AREA OF MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS FOR ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS, AS
WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES, THE TUESDAY FORECAST
HAS SOME BUST POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, STICKING WITH THE HEAT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SINK
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S LOOK MORE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, AND MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY AT HNB AND BWG. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
HNB AND BWG. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SCT THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING. A SCT AFTERNOON CU FIELD AROUND 5
KFT IS EXPECTED AFTER 16-17Z FRI. VERY ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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