775
FXUS63 KLMK 031751
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
151 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* EARLY FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
* TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THERE HAS BEEN A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH AREAS OF FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA, BURNING OFF
OVER THE PAST HOUR. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
AS OF 15Z WITH LIGHT SW WINDS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL OBS. THE INVERTED
SFC TROUGH AND UPPER SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING, THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THIS NEAR-SFC MOISTURE
MIXES OUT, WE SHOULD SEE A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP,
THOUGH INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOW-TO-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO NEAR-TERM GRIDS TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THIS MORNING, YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, CLEARINGS SKIES, LIGHT WINDS,
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PUSH
THE STUBBORN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
HELP TO KEEP SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY DRIER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT IT'S LOOKING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
ALONG A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY PARKWAYS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR AN INCH OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND MODELS SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY UNEVENTFUL. MOST WILL SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE, AND WITH LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MOST OF THE CWA COULD
RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN BY THE TIME THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE A TOTAL CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE (OR
EVEN LESS), BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERACHIEVERS TOO. GIVEN
THE TIME OF DAY, A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT
ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LIMITS
THURSDAY HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. IN
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE CAA, HIGHS COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S TO EVEN THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT, RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA, THE
CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OF
THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE CWA, LIFTING FRIDAY TEMPERATURES BACK INTO LOW 80S TO LOW 90S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT BY THE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS, A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDER LOOK TO BECOME LIKELY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE CLEARING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW MAY ONLY SEE THE
UPPER 60S.
TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCH UP DAY BY
DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
DAYTIME HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS
FIELD AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR LEX
AND RGA. GIVEN THAT THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST VERY SOON, WILL INITIALIZE THE TAFS WITHOUT PRECIP MENTION AND
JUST CARRY A SCT-BKN CU FIELD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE SW BETWEEN 6-12 KT.
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
AND LEAD TIME, WILL LEAVE TS MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST, THOUGH
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR ANY TSRA/SHRA SHOULD BE DURING THE EARLY-TO-MID
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. VISIBILITY DROPS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY
HEAVY RAIN, AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW HOURS AFTER
PRECIP ONSET AS LOW STRATUS MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY VEER FROM S/SW TO W/NW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM NW TO SE BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG
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