477
FXUS63 KLMK 060718
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING MAY BREAK RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES.
* A VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED WELL INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION, SKIES WERE GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. WE'RE
SEEING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OUT TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE MISSOURI SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY TOWARD SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ALLOWING SKIES TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN OUR EASTERN
SECTIONS. IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, EARLIER CLEARING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. LEXINGTON
MAY APPROACH AND/OR BREAK RECORD LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES AT THE OTHER CLIMATE SITES LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE
CURRENT RECORD LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD SWAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 74-79 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. LOWS IN
THE VALLEYS AND THE TYPICAL GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS WILL DIP
INTO THE LOWER 40S. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
MAYBE GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S. RECORD LOWS MAY BE TIED/BROKEN
AGAIN MAINLY AT LEXINGTON AND POSSIBLY FRANKFORT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER BLOCKY WITH TROUGHS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN US, WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US AND THE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FOR THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. BY TUESDAY, A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE,
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE MOVED NOW INTO EASTERN KY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS COMES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST, MORE -SHRA WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY DAWN. STILL COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT OVERALL THINGS
LOOK TO REMAIN VFR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...
SUN, SEPT 7TH MON, SEPT 8TH TUES, SEPT 9TH
REC (YR) | FCST REC (YR) | FCST REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 46 (1988) | 52 46 (1956) | 50 44 (1883) | 53
LEX 47 (2017) | 47 45 (1956) | 45 45 (2024) | 49
BWG 43 (1988) | 52 47 (1956) | 49 44 (1958) | 53
FFT 43 (1988) | 47 42 (1988) | 44 43 (2024) | 48
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM....MJ
LONG TERM.....MJ
AVIATION......MJ
CLIMATE.......CSG/CG
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