250
FXUS63 KLMK 062346
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
746 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..FORECAST AND AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* PATCHY FOG LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOWLING GREEN, KY TO
RICHMOND, KY LINE. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.
* COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS MAY
APPROACH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (40S).
* BEAUTIFUL WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
70S.
* A VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. THE RAIN AND CLOUD
SHIELDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA, AND WE ARE ON OUR WAY TO A COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR LOWS. DID BEEF UP THE FOG
WORDING AND COVERAGE A BIT ACROSS OUR SE CWA, ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE
OF A LINE FROM BOWLING GREEN THROUGH RICHMOND AND WINCHESTER, KY.
HERE, CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON, AND DEW POINTS
ARE NOTABLY HIGHER GIVEN THAT THIS AREA IS NOT YET DEEPER INTO THE
POST-FRONTAL DRY ADVECTION. GIVEN THE MUCH SMALLER T/TD SPREADS RH
VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 80-100% RANGE IN THAT AREA, AND WE EXPECT
PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO
BEEF UP FOG EVEN MORE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS GO FROM HERE, AS TD'S ARE SUPPOSED TO DROP
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEX HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK A
RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS AND
LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS, BUT THIS PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER
THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. NOTABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID-
LEVELS FROM THE NW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS NW OF A MORGANTOWN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE ARE ALREADY ENJOYING MORE SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN
IN AND WEST-CENTRAL KY. FOR THE BLUEGRASS/LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO MID 60S SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
SOME AREAS, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST YOU ARE, WILL SEE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN CWA
(WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEAR LATEST THIS EVENING). LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. LEXINGTON WILL LIKELY APPROACH
ITS DAILY RECORD LOW OF 47 DEGREES FOR SEPTEMBER 7TH.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ENE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. SUNDAY LOOKS BEAUTIFUL, WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN IN AND
NORTHERN KY, AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY). SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST RURAL AREAS (UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
IN SOME URBAN ENVIRONMENTS). A HANDFUL OF SELECT COOL SPOTS MAY EVEN
REACH THE UPPER 30S (SUCH AS KY MESONET STATIONS IN HANCOCK, MEADE,
AND HARRISON COUNTIES).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT'LL BE ANOTHER SPECTACULAR
DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US LATE IN THE WEEK.
DURING THIS TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WE'LL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK, AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. WE'LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ON TUE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL HELP BOOST
AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. MORNING LOWS WILL STILL BE
COOL, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE MORE COMMON DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS STEADY NW WINDS ARE
STARTING TO SLACKEN AND WILL GO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES, AND FOG POSSIBLE AT KBWG/KRGA/KLEX.
KRGA IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE WORST, BUT SOME BRIEF IFR CAN'T BE RULED
AT BWG/LEX EITHER. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR STEADY NW WINDS TO PICK
UP AGAIN TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15
TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...
SUN, SEPT 7TH MON, SEPT 8TH TUES, SEPT 9TH
REC (YR) | FCST REC (YR) | FCST REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 46 (1988) | 52 46 (1956) | 50 44 (1883) | 53
LEX 47 (2017) | 47 45 (1956) | 45 45 (2024) | 49
BWG 43 (1988) | 50 47 (1956) | 49 44 (1958) | 52
FFT 43 (1988) | 47 42 (1988) | 45 43 (2024) | 48
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS
CLIMATE...EBW/CSG/CG
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