132
FXUS63 KLMK 091859
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND
* NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY NOT ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY UNDER CONTROL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF TO OUR NE. SOME LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE TAKEN HOLD
OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
RESIDES. HERE, WE'VE NOTICED A HEALTHY CU FIELD DEVELOP ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE HEALTHY CU CERTAINLY LOOK READY TO "FREE CONVECT" ON
SATELLITE, HOWEVER THEY WON'T BE GOING ANYWHERE AS A VERY STRONG H8
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD. TODAY IS WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGHS LOOK TO FIND THEIR WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP MOSTLY INTO THE 50S TONIGHT,
WITH A FEW LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SW CWA. WILL ALSO KEEP A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST GOING WITH SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY AND VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE, IN OUR SE AND E CWA.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FOR MOST. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN WITH AFTER
CUMULUS MIXED WITH A FEW UPPER CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...
A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT QPF
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN LINGER INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MEANS MOSTLY WASH THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE
UNDER DONE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WILL STILL KEEP THEM "SILENT" (LESS
THAN 15%), BUT DO FEEL THAT A 10% CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER OR
AT LEAST SPRINKLES EXIST. AT THE MOMENT, THESE CHANCES LOOK TO BE
FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK OF CLOUDS (8-10K FEET), SO THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT IT COULD MAINLY BE VIRGA, BUT ALSO PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME
REACHES THE GROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL
AND MOSTLY IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS, WITH LOWS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EACH DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL DOWN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR MOST.
SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...
IT DOES APPEAR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES COULD RETURN
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEAK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A
NEW ENGLAND LOW TRIES TO SINK INTO OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
(20%) CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE ISN'T REAL HIGH EITHER WAY,
BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF SHOWER/T-STORM
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE RUNNING HOT
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. LOOK FOR LIGHT AND MOSTLY SE SURFACE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE GOING MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND BY MID TO LATE MORNING TO A SW AND THEN W COMPONENT AT THE
END OF THIS CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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