616
FXUS63 KLMK 100744
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
344 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CONTINUED DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS WE REMAIN DRY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY BUT WITH NOTICEABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL START TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER BUT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS IS THE START OF A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON, DEW POINTS COULD DROP
INTO THE 40S RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. AS WE
REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY, AND SEE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S, WE WILL START TO SEE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. THE ONE FACTOR THAT DOES HELP IS OUR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, SOME CLOUDS AND THERE IS EVEN THE SLIGHTEST
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE OVERALL COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT EVEN INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. GOING TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT, FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AND MORE
MILD AS THEY DROP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE BLUE GRASS TO LOW 60S
AS YOU MOVE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE STORY
BECOMES THE RISING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN TO THE
LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
SUMMER WARMTH AS WELL AS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVE OUR
PROLONGED DRY SPELL WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
NORTHWARD AND EXPECT EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
STILL BE OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS WAS POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT GIVE THE OVERALL
DRY COLUMN AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE COMING FROM THE MID-LEVELS, IF
ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SILENT POP (10% OR LESS) DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY, WE WERE LOOKING AT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND HELPS TO WORK A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
APPEARS TO HOLD STRONGER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAN ONCE ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS VFR AS WE CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
SFC HIGH PRESSIRE. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL CU FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT REMAIN NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 5 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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