748
FXUS63 KLMK 101244
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CONTINUED DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS WE REMAIN DRY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IN AND WESTERN KY, AS
WELL AS A MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOUNDINGS SHOW
NEAR-SATURATION WITHIN THE 850-600 MB LAYER, WITH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 850 MB. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF SATURATION AND ONGOING
ISOLATED POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITY AROUND 40 DBZ, THINK THAT SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
BY ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER PORTIONS OF DUBOIS, PERRY, AND
HANCOCK COUNTY. WHILE THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER
THIS MORNING, THE AREA OF >15% POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
GIVEN SUBSEQUENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY BUT WITH NOTICEABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL START TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER BUT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS IS THE START OF A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON, DEW POINTS COULD DROP
INTO THE 40S RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. AS WE
REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY, AND SEE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S, WE WILL START TO SEE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. THE ONE FACTOR THAT DOES HELP IS OUR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, SOME CLOUDS AND THERE IS EVEN THE SLIGHTEST
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE OVERALL COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT EVEN INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. GOING TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT, FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AND MORE
MILD AS THEY DROP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE BLUE GRASS TO LOW 60S
AS YOU MOVE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE STORY
BECOMES THE RISING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN TO THE
LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
SUMMER WARMTH AS WELL AS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVE OUR
PROLONGED DRY SPELL WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
NORTHWARD AND EXPECT EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
STILL BE OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS WAS POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT GIVE THE OVERALL
DRY COLUMN AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE COMING FROM THE MID-LEVELS, IF
ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SILENT POP (10% OR LESS) DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY, WE WERE LOOKING AT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND HELPS TO WORK A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
APPEARS TO HOLD STRONGER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAN ONCE ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
WEAK WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
NARROW NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF BKN MID-LEVEL STRATUS. COULD EXPECT SCT
TO BKN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND WAVE WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, SOME SCATTERED HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD COME WITH
THIS BUT AGAIN LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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