230
FXUS63 KLMK 110016
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
816 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT AND ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR MID-TO-LATE SEPTEMBER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE ONLY HAVE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY AT THIS TIME, SOUTHWEST OF BOWLING
GREEN. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONE OTHER ROGUE SHOWER JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA, DRIFTING TOWARD SEYMOUR IN. A PLUME OF 1.2-1.3 INCH PW VALUES
EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, MOST WILL STAY DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST, WITH
THE OHIO VALLEY BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE FEATURES. A
LAYER OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH IS ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AS OF 19Z.
WITHIN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS, WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
QUICKLY AS THE CLOUDS EXIT. OVER THE PAST HOUR, THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING IN REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS OUTRUNS THE BEST
MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY, WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.10".
TONIGHT, CONTINUED TROUGHINESS IN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS NOT ONE PARTICULAR AREA
THAT SHOWERS ARE FAVORED, WE'LL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT, THOUGH AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR, INCREASED SFC MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT FOG AT LEAST IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER, WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 50S IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN EAST CENTRAL KY TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KY.
TOMORROW, RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. WHILE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO POP UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE KY BLUEGRASS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE
NATCHER PARKWAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
AN ABNORMALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY, HELPING TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER PWAT AIR
MASS WHICH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, SO WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-
TO-MID 50S WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL MORE TOLERABLE. THE COMBINATION OF
WARMING TEMPS AND FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOWER
DEWPOINTS ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
FORTUNATELY, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND FUEL MOISTURE IS
STILL RELATIVELY HIGH, BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH GIVEN
THE EXPECTED DRY WEATHER AHEAD.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MAIN SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS/GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WELL OFF TO THE EAST, WITH THE HEAT DOME REMAINING
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE EPS/ECMWF DIGS
THE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST, BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS WELL AS KNOCK TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BACK SLIGHTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK
(TEMPS WOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL). REGARDLESS, MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS SHOULD BE DRY AND VERY WARM, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT CLOUDS,
MAINLY BETWEEN 6-10 KFT TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR BWG. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN FOG AT THE TERMINALS. HNB HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING MVFR OR IFR VSBY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. A LIGHT NNE WIND AROUND 5 KTS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...EBW
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