826
FXUS63 KLMK 120744
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
344 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
* POTENTIAL FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT AND ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR MID-TO-LATE SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW ISOLATED 90S. WINDS WILL MIX LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 10 MPH. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
ALSO SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CU DUE TO DRIER AIR FILTERING
AROUND THE SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, WINDS LIGHT BUT
TEMPEARTURES MILD AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND A FEW LOW
60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FEATURES DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM
WEATHER. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUMMER-
LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOW 90S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS
ONLY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND,
DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP TO LOWER SOME OF THESE VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL STRETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
CONUS, WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS OVER
HUDSON BAY INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT
LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THIS BOUNDARY DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO
DIFFER SO CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WHILE THE GFS SLIGHTLY
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND KEEPING THE TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS, THE EURO DEVELOPS THAT
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THEN ALLOWS
IT TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD BEFORE MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEAR SKIES, WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP, SFC
MOISTURE IS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 5KTS. IT REMAINS
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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