605
FXUS63 KLMK 130723
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
* THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WITH MOST OF THE
REGION EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ALREADY, MANY COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
OMEGA-STYLE BLOCK PATTERN IS NOTED OVER THE US TODAY, WITH UPPER
RIDGING FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL US, AND UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH ENDS
OF THE MAINLAND. WE'LL SEE THESE UPPER FEATURE AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT
TODAY, THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN
STORE. A MCV OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL RIDE THE RIDGE AND
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IN AND IL TODAY, BUT WILL RUN OUT OF
STEAM THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PEAKS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY AIR MIXING WILL HELP
KEEP OUR DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP KEEP
OUR HEAT INDICES SUPPRESSED.
LATER TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESCEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN US, WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE FRINGE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A WEAK PERTURBATION WITHIN THE
FLOW COULD BRING MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT
AS A SLIM VORT WING DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AT FIRST,
WE'LL SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE PRIOR MCV FILTERS SOUTHWARD, BUT EXPECT
EVEN MORE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING AS WE SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE HELP OF THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH, SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK TO REGENERATE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IN IN THE WAKE OF
THE DECAYED MCV FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO WORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER
DRY LOW LEVELS TO KEEP MOST PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WE
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO IMPROVE ANY ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WE ONLY EXPECT A 20-30% COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
===== SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE SUNDAY MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST SLIPS A BIT MORE
SOUTH BEFORE DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST. DOUBT MUCH OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE OBSERVED, AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS, BUT
THE GUIDANCE DOESN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOMEONE SEEING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN US. PROBS REMAIN HIGH FOR
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, WILL CONTINUE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND DROP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM NBM GUIDANCE,
THANKS TO DRY AIR MIXING EXPECTED TO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S.
OTHER THAN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SPRINKLE CHANCE, MOST OF THE
WEEK FEATURES NO CONSIDERABLE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THIS WILL WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATING D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) AND D1
(MODERATE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WITH THE WORST
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING (D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT) ACROSS THE JACKSON
PURCHASE REGION OF KY.
===== SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK =====
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE SOME LOWER END PRECIP
CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLIPS TO AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL US. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS VARY SOME, BUT WILL HAVE AROUND 20% POP FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-65 FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOR ALL THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.
DAILY HIGHS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL HITTING THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. WE
MAY EVENTUALLY SEE TEMPS BREAK AS WE GET TO FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
VARY TODAY AS THEY SWING BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (HNB, SDF, LEX), MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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