821
FXUS63 KLMK 131513
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1113 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
* THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WITH MOST OF THE
REGION EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ALREADY, MANY COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1113 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
SPOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW
SPOTS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. WE EXPECT GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IN TURN MIX DOWN DRIER AIR ALOFT
RESULTING IN DECREASING DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A PERTURBATION COMING DOWN THE PIKE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONGOING MCS OVER NORTHERN IN WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE
PERTURBATION ALOFT MAY FORCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD DROP INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KY THIS EVENING, PER THE HRRR GUIDANCE.
THE MPAS GROUP OF MODELS IS A BIT DRIER ALONG WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE
WHICH HOLDS OFF CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
OMEGA-STYLE BLOCK PATTERN IS NOTED OVER THE US TODAY, WITH UPPER
RIDGING FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL US, AND UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH ENDS
OF THE MAINLAND. WE'LL SEE THESE UPPER FEATURE AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT
TODAY, THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN
STORE. A MCV OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL RIDE THE RIDGE AND
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IN AND IL TODAY, BUT WILL RUN OUT OF
STEAM THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PEAKS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY AIR MIXING WILL HELP
KEEP OUR DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP KEEP
OUR HEAT INDICES SUPPRESSED.
LATER TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESCEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN US, WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE FRINGE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A WEAK PERTURBATION WITHIN THE
FLOW COULD BRING MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT
AS A SLIM VORT WING DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AT FIRST,
WE'LL SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE PRIOR MCV FILTERS SOUTHWARD, BUT EXPECT
EVEN MORE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING AS WE SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE HELP OF THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH, SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK TO REGENERATE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IN IN THE WAKE OF
THE DECAYED MCV FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO WORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER
DRY LOW LEVELS TO KEEP MOST PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WE
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO IMPROVE ANY ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WE ONLY EXPECT A 20-30% COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
===== SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE SUNDAY MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST SLIPS A BIT MORE
SOUTH BEFORE DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST. DOUBT MUCH OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE OBSERVED, AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS, BUT
THE GUIDANCE DOESN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOMEONE SEEING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN US. PROBS REMAIN HIGH FOR
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, WILL CONTINUE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND DROP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM NBM GUIDANCE,
THANKS TO DRY AIR MIXING EXPECTED TO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S.
OTHER THAN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SPRINKLE CHANCE, MOST OF THE
WEEK FEATURES NO CONSIDERABLE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THIS WILL WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATING D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) AND D1
(MODERATE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WITH THE WORST
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING (D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT) ACROSS THE JACKSON
PURCHASE REGION OF KY.
===== SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK =====
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE SOME LOWER END PRECIP
CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLIPS TO AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL US. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS VARY SOME, BUT WILL HAVE AROUND 20% POP FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-65 FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOR ALL THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.
DAILY HIGHS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL HITTING THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. WE
MAY EVENTUALLY SEE TEMPS BREAK AS WE GET TO FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TERMINALS REMAIN VFR TODAY, WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
(SDF, HNB, LEX). NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CIG AND INTO DRY AIR, SO
ANY PRECIP THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, BUT GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM....CJP
AVIATION.....CJP
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