668
FXUS63 KLMK 140110
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
910 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT.
* DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WITH MOST OF THE
REGION EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ALREADY, MANY COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN OVERSPREADING OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, BUT LITTLE RAINFALL HAS HIT THE GROUND SO
FAR AS THE LOWEST 8000 FEET REMAINS PRETTY DRY. WE'LL SEE STEADY
MOISTENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS T/TD SPREADS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO SHRINK, AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWATS
STEADILY RISING. HAVE INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR CWA AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN MORE FOLKS THAN
NOT RECEIVING RAINFALL AT SOME POINT. TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE, SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. THAT BEING SAID,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/STORM GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS, BUT OVERALL NOT TOO CONCERNED
AS THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER SHOULD MITIGATE THAT. GIVEN NORTH TO
SOUTH TRAINING ROUNDS OF THESE SHOWERS, IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SPOTS
COULD LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN .5" AND 1", BUT NO REAL
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS, JUST SEEING SOME OF THOSE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS SHOWING UP IN THE HIGHER RES DATA. OVERALL, A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH A BIT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WERE
MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S, BUT AN AREA OF LOWER 90S WAS NOTED WEST
OF THE I-165 CORRIDOR. AREA RADARS SHOW A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT, SO THE DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE
LOOKS TO CONTINUE. THE BEST CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN LOOK TO BE
ACROSS WASHINGTON/SCOTT/JEFFERSON COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN IN THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WILL BE WATCHING ONGOING CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA. ALOFT,
WE'LL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS OVER
NORTHWEST IN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND DROP INTO SOUTHERN IN AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY WEST-CENTRAL KY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS CARRYING A 20-30%
POP OVERNIGHT FOR COVERAGE AND THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AT THIS
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, A FEW LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE DOWN ACROSS THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION.
FOR SUNDAY, A BATCH OF CLOUDS FROM POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL QUITE DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS GONE DONE SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 84-89 DEGREE RANGE. WEST OF
I-165 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST, HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BACK IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. OMEGA TYPE PATTERN
ALOFT, CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHS ON THE COASTS AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US WILL HOLD SWAY AS A REX TYPE BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN US. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING SEEN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER OUR REGION, WITH THE CORE OF THE HEAT CONTINUING TO BE
CENTERED OUT TO OUR WEST. THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP WITH INCREASINGLY DRY WEATHER LEADING TO
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A CONTINUED DRYING
OF FUELS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION. A NUMBER
OF COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ARE ALREADY
UNDER BURN BANS GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY AND BEYOND), THE REX BLOCK
ACROSS THE EAST LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING SOME WELCOME RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MAINLY IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
FALLING HEIGHTS, WE SHOULD SEE A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES HERE AS
WELL WITH READINGS ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES (MAINLY SDF/LEX/BWG) FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OUT
OF A MID DECK OF CLOUDS, AND WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
EVAPORATING SOME MOISTURE, DO THINK THAT VIS WILL ALSO STAY ABOVE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. JUST MENTIONED PERIODS OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT, BUT
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A T-STORM, ESPECIALLY AT SDF OR LEX
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WITH A LIGHT SW MIDDAY WIND,
SWITCHING TO AN E OR NE WIND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM EITHER, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BJS
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