455
FXUS63 KLMK 151043
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WITH MOST OF
THE REGION EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ALREADY, MANY COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS
BEEN THE DRIVER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN KY
ALONG THE BETTER PWAT AXIS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING SINCE WE HAVE DRIER AIR, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15%, SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE US TODAY,
WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST, AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST AND WEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT MORE INTO A REX BLOCK BY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TROUGH, CLOSING IT OFF OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR TODAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME OVERNIGHT UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
US UPPER LOW. GUIDANCE SIGNALS WE COULD HAVE SOME SMALLER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY, SO WE
MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW. TEMPS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
===== TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT =====
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A REX BLOCK PATTERN
FOR THE MID-WEEK, WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, AND
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF ANY ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE OVER AN AREA STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY. THUS, OUR AREA REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS, WITH NO
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ISOLATED RADAR RETURNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY, BUT SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30 DEGREES,
WHICH WOULD BE A FAIRLY DEEP AND DRY LAYER THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD
HAVE TO GET THROUGH TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC. THE REX BLOCK PATTERN
WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, THIS
WILL HELP KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE SENSIBLE TEMPS.
OF THESE THREE DAYS, TUESDAY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER FORECAST HIGHS DUE
TO EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WE'LL SEE A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP HERE
WITH THE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED DRY OUT OF SURFACE FUELS. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONGOING DRYNESS HAS ALREADY
LED TO BURN BANS IN SEVERAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.
===== FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY =====
AS WE GET TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER PATTERN COULD
FEATURE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US, WITH A
CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE TREND CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN A LATER ARRIVAL FOR
PRECIP TO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE MEMBER VIEW OF BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW MEMBERS PICKING UP QPF AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH NEARLY
NO MEMBERS SHOWING QPF AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE NBM SEEMS TO BE
CATCHING ON AS WELL, WITH THE LATEST RUN NOW DELAYING PRECIP ONSET
SLIGHTLY.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESSENTIALLY STAGNANT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SOME OF SATURDAY, WE WILL NOT RECEIVE A STRONG MOISTURE
FETCH INTO THE AREA. MID-LEVEL VORT WINGS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME INITIAL FORCING OVER THE AREA, WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY QPF IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THE BETTER FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS SUCH, POPS WILL BE HIGHER FOR SUNDAY AS WE COULD ACTUALLY
END UP SEEING A BIT MORE COVERAGE IN PRECIP. OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, POSSIBLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH FOR THE WEEKEND. WE'LL TAKE ANY RAIN WE CAN GET, BUT AS OF NOW
THIS WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO OVERCOME OUR CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NOW EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS IN THE MID-80S. SUNDAY FEATURES
LOW TO MID 80S AS EVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP PLAY A ROLE IN
OUR HIGH TEMP FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST TODAY, VARYING BETWEEN SE AND NE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME
MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BWG TOMORROW MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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