114
FXUS63 KLMK 161745
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ONGOING
ABNORMALLY DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING, WITH A COMBINATION OF SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERHEAD AND THIN CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD
FROM THE EAST. A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY THIS MORNING, WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IS POOLED. WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AS WELL AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE), COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS SEEING QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN QUICKLY. ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE,
AND THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY SINK SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER
BY 23-00Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF FOLKS WILL CONTINUE TO ENJOY DRY,
WARM WEATHER THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW COOL SPOTS STILL LINGERING
IN THE UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TODAY FEATURES A REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US, WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST
TODAY, AND WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS A
RESULT. TEMPS TODAY COULD END UP BEING A BIT TRICKY DUE TO HOW MUCH
OF AN IMPACT THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON HEATING, BUT GENERALLY THINK
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE MOST LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER THE REGION TODAY MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, AS SEEN IN SOME OF
THE CAMS. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, SPC HAS INCLUDED SOUTH-CENTRAL KY IN
A GENERAL THUNDER RISK FOR TODAY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP, AND
SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO OUR HEATING,
THOUGH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. WE SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY DEEP MIXING, RESULTING IN A
RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER THAT WOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR POPS
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP ANY POP
MENTION BELOW 15%, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A DRY FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS OF NOW. IF WE DO END UP WITH SOME
ISOLATED PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, THAT COULD END UP FAVORING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
===== WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT =====
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE MID-LEVEL LOWS TO THE EAST AND WEST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST.
WE'LL SEE THIS RIDGE CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS
THE EAST COAST MID-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS OFF THE COAST, TAKING ANY
MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY PERIOD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH TEMPS OVERACHIEVED
MONDAY, THESE HIGHS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER. FORTUNATELY, LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM BECOMING EXCESSIVE.
===== FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY =====
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL US. EXPECT FRIDAY
TO REMAIN DRY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO HIT THE LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
WE WELCOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING EVENTUALLY PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. OUR BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE AND FORCING
OVERLAP, THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIP WILL HELP LOWER OUR
FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY, BUT MID
80S FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SCT HIGH CU NEAR 7-8 KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. IN ADDITION,
SCT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING WSW OVERHEAD WITH BRIEF BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT LEX/RGA/BWG INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN TONIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, WITH NE WINDS BRIEFLY PEAKING
AROUND 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ029>031.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...EBW
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