617
FXUS63 KLMK 162339
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
739 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ONGOING
ABNORMALLY DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER.
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN THAT
AREA, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY NUDGE THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS, CLOSING OFF THE WINDOW FOR ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ON THE KY SIDE OF THE BORDER.
MUCH OF CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO CHURN NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE FINALLY
EJECTING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. WITHIN THIS REGIME, NE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL DRY OUT OUR AIRMASS A BIT MORE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
THE END RESULT IS FAIRLY WARM WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WAVE'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW A BIT
BEFORE IT OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FINALLY ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION, AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOTABLY DRIER NOW ON SATURDAY.
FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ANOTHER DRY, UNUSUALLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE TRENDING DRIER,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW WARMER TEMPS (DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS). WE
COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SOLID LOW 90S ON SATURDAY, BUT
THERE'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRONGER FORCING AND THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING US ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ANY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT IN
NATURE, AND POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE (20S AND
30S). HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DOES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
FAIRLY LOW BEYOND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO GO ALONG AND WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME MVFR FOG AT BWG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS,
HOWEVER CROSSOVER TS DOWN THERE SUGGEST THAT IT MIXED PRETTY DEEP
THIS AFTERNOON, AND DO NOT SUPPORT FOG MENTION. SO, WILL LEAVE IT
OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR A FEW-SCT CU
LAYER AROUND 7-8 K FEET TOMORROW ALONG WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE ERRATIC, BUT THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE OR NE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ029>031.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS
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