997
FXUS63 KLMK 011712
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
112 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
M
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG SFC HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER QUEBEC IN THE SHORT TERM, MAINTAINING NE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AS OF THIS WRITING, THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW CIRRUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS. SCT-BKN THIN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN IN AND
CENTRAL KY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 82-87 DEGREE RANGE. TONIGHT WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
OUR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS STRETCH, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE CONUS AS DEEPER TROUGHING SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN US AND NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE SINKS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, MODEL GUIDANCE
FEATURES A POTENT LEESIDE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THIS STORM THEN RACING NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS ESTABLISHES SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO FINALLY
ADVECT NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE HIGH TO
THE EAST.
OVERALL, IT STILL LOOKS REALLY NICE INTO THE WEEKEND. WE'LL LIKELY
STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS STRETCH, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THEN IT IS A MATTER OF HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH CAN
SINK INTO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE FORCED SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH CONTINUED VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND AN UPPER RIDGE
RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE ENE WITH
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS AT NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BTN
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