615
FXUS63 KLMK 020536
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
UPPER RIDGING AND STRONG SFC HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OTHER THAN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PASSING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST, EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MORNING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 60.
THE STRONG SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
WARMING NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OUR ONGOING STRETCH
OF DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. WHILE UPPER
RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE, WE
WILL SEE CHANGES IN BOTH OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND RETROGRADES
WESTWARD OVER FL AND INTO THE GULF FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RETURN FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD SETTING UP ALONG THE CONUS EAST
COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WORKS EASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTO UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF COAST AND
APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS SFC COLD FRONT COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN
CHANCES AROUND THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING AND EVEN
AMOUNTS REMAIN IN QUESTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...KDW
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