504
FXUS63 KLMK 021607
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1207 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ALONG OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
ON OUR WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY FOR THE AREA. ONLY REAL FOCUS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
NOTABLE H6-H5 CAPPING INVERSION, WITH ONLY A BIT OF POSITIVE AREA
BENEATH THIS LEVEL. AS A RESULT, ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO FIRE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SHALLOW, AND LIKELY WON'T HAVE ANY LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL WITH IT UNLESS IT BREAKS THE STOUT MID LEVEL CAP. NOT
LIKELY. GONNA BE PRETTY HARD TO ACTUALLY TRIGGER A STORM GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY NOTABLE MECHANISMS. HOWEVER, WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CHANCE
IN FOR OUR FAR SW COUNTIES GIVEN THAT SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A FEW BLIPS ON RADAR MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL STREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AS
IT RIDES THE RIDGE. THE BLUEGRASS REGION, BEING EAST OF THE UPPER
HIGH (WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE), WILL SEE SOME OF THESE UPPER CLOUDS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUMP SURFACE DEW POINTS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS COULD COULD GENERATED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS
A SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
BE WEAK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. A FEW AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA MAY
ONLY SEE THE LOW 80S.
EXPECT ANY REMAINING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO FADE AS DIURNAL WARMING IS LOST, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT, A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ALONG OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY AND INDIANA. NOTHING SEVERE
IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER NIGHT
OF NEAR CALM WINDS WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SUNNY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EACH DAY. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST UNTIL IT'S
RUNNING NORTHEAST OF MAINE AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
ARIZONA. NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OVER THE
PACIFIC AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AT
THE SURFACE, THE HIGH THAT WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SIT OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, AND THIS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE NORTHWEST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL
BECOME SCATTERED CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 80, BUT THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY HIGHS TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY, BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
AS DEW POINTS RETURN TO THE 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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