023
FXUS63 KLMK 030554
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
154 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ALONG OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF CIRRUS
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN AT THIS HOUR, WITH A FEW
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ALSO BEING OBSERVED.
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL KY, CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SINCE SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
EXHIBIT A 10-15 DEGREE SPLIT BETWEEN URBAN AREAS/RIDGETOPS AND RURAL
AREAS/VALLEYS.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KY AND SOUTHWEST IN,
WITH GREATER LOW-TO-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SUPPORT FROM A RELATIVELY WEAK SPOT IN THE UPPER RIDGE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-65 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS BUT WILL GENERALLY KEEP A DRY FORECAST (<15%
POP) INTO TOMORROW GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE AND LIMITED COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP WHERE CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
LOW 60S FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS WAS DISCUSSED BEFORE, SEEING AN AREA OF
AGITATED CU ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KY WHERE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE IS NOTED ALONG WITH SOME POSITIVE AREA BETWEEN THE LFC AND THE
H6 INVERSION ON SOUNDINGS. ML CAPE VALUES ARE REACHING UP ROUND 500
J/KG BUT ARE ALSO MITIGATED BY PITIFUL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
BLIPS ON RADAR ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN KY, AND GIVEN HIGH
DCAPE THANKS TO DRY LOW LEVELS, COULD GET A FEW WEAK WIND GUSTS OUT
OF COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP SOME 20% CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AGITATED
CU FIELD, MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS, AND POTENTIAL FOR "CHAIN
REACTION" TRIGGERING.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR NW CWA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SOME PATCHY VALLEY AND RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
FRIDAY BRINGS ANOTHER WARM/HOT DAY WITH TEMPS PEAKING MOSTLY IN THE
MID 80S. A FEW UPPER 80S EVEN POSSIBLE, HOWEVER SOME SKY COVER COULD
LIMIT THAT A BIT. PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR NW IN THE AM, OTHERWISE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
THE WEEKEND...
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP US WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH CONTINUED/WORSENING DRY CONDITIONS TO GO
ALONG WITH IT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STEADILY SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO WE WILL BE STARTING TO SEE THE END OF THE
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S FOR HIGHS (CALL IT 82-
87). MEANWHILE, LOOK FOR COMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
EACH MORNING. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE A
COMMON THEME EACH NIGHT.
MONDAY - THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE STEADILY BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
NORTHERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY WEEK, AND THEN COMPLETELY LOSES THE
BATTLE BY MID WEEK. WE'LL LIKELY STILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY WEEK (SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES), BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK (WEDNESDAY), WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS SAGS
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN
EASTERN CANADA LOW. HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDNESDAY, WITH
GRADUALLY "COOLING" TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY, AROUND 80 TUESDAY, AND THEN INTO THE
70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ONCE AGAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE SOME LOWS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY AM, WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY MORE SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS OUT OF A GENERAL
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...KDW
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