041
FXUS63 KLMK 031734
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
134 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANCES MOVE TO SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUE FOR MOST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
CWA, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AROUND OHIO COUNTY. EXPECT
"CHAIN REACTION" TYPE TRIGGERING TO CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
WEAK ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG. HAVEN'T OBSERVED ANY LIGHTNING,
AND DON'T EXPECT MUCH GIVEN VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
THAT INVERSION BETWEEN 500 AND 600 MB. RAISED POPS WHERE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST WIDESPREAD, AND ALSO EXPANDED THE MEASURABLE
POPS NORTHWARD INTO SW INDIANA A BIT MORE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW COVERS THE WHOLE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND STRETCHES SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. THIS CONTINUES
TO KEEP THINGS QUIET OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO STREAM TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA WEST OF AN UPPER
HIGH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS TO NEAR 1.5" THIS MORNING
NEAR AND WEST OF OHIO COUNTY. PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL REMAIN IN THIS
AREA AS WELL AS WORK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS IN THIS
AREA WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 60S WITH A FEW AREAS HITTING THE MID
60S. THIS ONCE AGAIN COULD CAUSE A FEW ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, MOST WILL ENJOY ANOTHER SUNNY DRY DAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. A FEW AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY MAY ONLY SEE THE LOW 80S.
EXPECT ANY REMAINING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO FADE AS DIURNAL WARMING IS LOST, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT, A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN AROUND THAT OHIO AND SURROUNDING COUNTY AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY. LOWS FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST UNTIL IT'S
RUNNING NORTHEAST OF MAINE AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
ARIZONA. NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OVER THE
PACIFIC AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE,
THE HIGH THAT WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SIT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST, FUNNELING MOISTURE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED CHANCES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY, EITHER SIDE OF 80 ON TUESDAY, BUT BY
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A PASSING SURFACE
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AROUND FOR THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
BUT AS THE HIGH PASSES, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY,
LIFTING TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
THINGS ARE MOSTLY QUIET AT THE TAF SITES THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE HNB TAF SITE WORTH NOTING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ON THE
DECLINE, SO WILL START THAT SITE OUT VFR, ALONG WITH THE OTHERS.
LOOK FOR A FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW UPPER
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SW TODAY.
TONIGHT, WINDS SLACKEN AND WE'LL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR FOG AT OUR EASTERN TAF SITES IN
LEX/RGA, SO WILL HINT AT SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS THERE. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE COULD GO DOWN BELOW MINIMUMS IF DENSE FOG IS ABLE TO SET
UP LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST. LOOKING FOR VFR AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
(ONCE ANY EASTERN FOG CLEARS), WITH LIGHT SE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS
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