776
FXUS63 KLMK 051740
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT.
* COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
QUIET WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW AND MID 80S. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WE NOW HAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND OF TO THE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REMAINS UNDER THIS
INFLUENCE WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND IN PLACE AS ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS WRAP AROUND THE HIGH. QUIET WEATHER STICKS AROUND FOR ONE LAST
DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES, BUT AS SOUTHERN
FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 60S AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY AND INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
TO MID 60S. THIS IS GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES AS LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
OFF THE COAST OF MAINE EARLY ON MONDAY. IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
TRAILING THE RIDGE, A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND SEPARATES FROM THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, NOT MUCH CHANGES, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SIT
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, CONTINUING TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW WAY
UP IN NORTHERN QUEBEC.
ON MONDAY, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5-2" SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A LINE
OF LIGHTER SHOWERS COULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES COME LATER IN THE DAY. MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE
AROUND 600 J/KG OR SO FOR THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK AND RAINFALL TOTALS ON MONDAY REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD EAST OVER THE WHOLE CWA. RAINFALL
TOTALS INCREASE BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE JUST UNDER AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHWEST
INDIANA COUNTIES TO AROUND 1.5". SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE
OVER 2".
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ON MONDAY, 70S ON TUESDAY, AND BY WEDNESDAY, A FEW 60S
COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF
THE CWA WILL SEE THE LOW 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A PASSING SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE 70S AROUND
FOR THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT AS THE HIGH PASSES, WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, LIFTING TEMPERATURES TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SOME 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TOWARD THEN OF
THIS ISSUANCE (TOMORROW AFTERNOON), BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH UNTIL THEN. LOOK FOR A FEW-SCT CU AND
LIGHT TO STEADY SE TO S WINDS TODAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
LATER TONIGHT. WE'LL KEEP THE STEADY SE WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR WESTERN SITES. INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION AT BWG/SDF/HNB TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS
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