261
FXUS63 KLMK 051900
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
* WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5" EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 2+" POSSIBLE.
* COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE WEEK, WITH
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
NOT A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK
IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LOOKING FOR
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS TOWARD SUNRISE. LOOKING FOR MILDER OVERALL LOWS WITH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER STARTING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF A DEEPER GULF MOISTURE PLUME SET TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO
OUR AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN AT LEAST SOME MEAGER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE ADDED
MOISTURE, EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING ONWARD. GIVEN THE INCREASED SKY COVER
AND SHOWER CHANCES, MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY MORNING...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT DIG THROUGH OUR AREA.
OVERALL, LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD AND MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
INCREASING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY, BEFORE STEADILY DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS, AND PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
DEEP MOISTURE PEAKS OVER OUR AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED AND SQUEEZED INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO OUR AREA. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THESE TWO MOISTURE SOURCES WILL COMBINE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER, AND CONTRIBUTE TO A PWAT PLUME THAT WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.8-2", WHICH IS AROUND 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH GOOD
FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ALONG WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL, QPF VALUES CONTINUE TO
TREND UPWARD WITH WPC PUTTING MOST OF OUR CWA SOLIDLY IN THE 1 TO
1.5" RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2"
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE NAM HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH, AND HAS
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE
TIME BEING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT IT USUALLY HAS A HIGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BIAS. SOMETHING TO WATCH, BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS/WPC FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
OVERALL, THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT LOOKS LOW AS INSTABILITY
WILL BE MEAGER (AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS), AND SOME LOW LEVEL
STABILITY LOOKS PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT
THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER REALLY GETS THAT STRONG, WITH MOST OF THE
SPEED SHEAR CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WILL
MAINLY MESSAGE REGULAR T-STORMS, AND FOCUS MORE ON THE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL, WITH PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN WORTH WATCHING.
LATER WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS ARE CLEAN THROUGH THE
AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING HOLD ONCE AGAIN AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BIG STORY HERE WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S, RANGING INTO THE 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THEN,
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST, WHICH IS
NEAR/AROUND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S FOR MOST.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...
INTERESTING PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN, BUT WILL HAVE SOME FACTORS HURTING
CONFIDENCE JUST A BIT. WE START OFF IN DRY NW FLOW, BUT IT APPEARS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS AND CLOSES OFF NEAR OR OVER OUR REGION, BEFORE
SETTLING JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD BE THE SPARK FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP POPS QUITE LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. MAYBE AT
OR JUST A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TOWARD THEN OF
THIS ISSUANCE (TOMORROW AFTERNOON), BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH UNTIL THEN. LOOK FOR A FEW-SCT CU AND
LIGHT TO STEADY SE TO S WINDS TODAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
LATER TONIGHT. WE'LL KEEP THE STEADY SE WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR WESTERN SITES. INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION AT BWG/SDF/HNB TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page