733
FXUS63 KLMK 170510
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
FRIDAY
* WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DAILY
RECORDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.75" IN MOST AREAS, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
* MORE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY, WITH 35 TO 40 MPH
WIND GUSTS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO MIX OUT, BUT REMAIN OVER MAINLY
SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DROP
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. AS EXPECTED, A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE
WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO AROUND 70 IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR. MID-UPPER 70S WERE NOTED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-
165 CORRIDOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SHOULD START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. BASED
ON EXPECTED DECOUPLING TONIGHT, A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED.
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES AND IN THE URBAN
CORRIDORS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY TO
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER
THE BLUEGRASS, TO 73-76 IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR. UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED IN THE I-165 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
MOVING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
HAVE BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN US COAST. ACROSS THE PLAINS, A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING
SIGNIFICANTLY.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COMING BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ANTICIPATED STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 83-88 DEGREE RANGE. WITH
THESE FORECAST HIGHS, BOWLING GREEN MAY BE ABLE TO TIE A HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD SET BACK IN 2016 AND IN OTHER YEARS. FOR
LEXINGTON AND LOUISVILLE, RECORD HIGHS ARE 87 FOR SATURDAY WHICH FOR
NOW LOOK SAFE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFIES, MID-UPPER
LEVEL JETS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL IN
WITH THE LOW MOVING AND DEEPENING AS IT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. MODEL PLAN SECTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE WITH WINDS OF 50-55KTS PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE PLUME OFF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND
1.7 INCHES JUST ALONG THE FRONT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN PROGRESS FROM IL BACK THROUGH WESTERN KY AND SE MO. THESE
WILL PUSH INTO OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING THROUGH THE VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY PROFILE. SHEAR ON
THE OTHER HAND, REMAINS QUITE STRONG/IMPRESSIVE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL EARLY IN THE
NIGHT, THE LAPSE RATES REALLY BECOME QUITE POOR AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON, WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY BECOMING VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTANT. ON
THE OTHER HAND, SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY HOLD ON
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT A LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LESS
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, THE DECENT
SHEAR PROFILE MAY RESULT IN A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. THE HIGHEST
THREAT WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE OF THE
HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS COULD EXHIBIT ROTATION ACROSS
MAINLY FAR WESTERN KY. THE OVERALL WIND THREAT HERE COULD BE MUTED
IF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
HOLD UP. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT
RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE AREA. THEREFORE, A VERY LOW RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
FOR SUNDAY, SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN PLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF KENTUCKY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY. IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS, LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL
BE BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO. SHOULD THE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 60S DURING
THE DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATE. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE US. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN KY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE
OVERALL TREND IN TODAY'S GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER, PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY, WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT IN GENERAL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TOWARD THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG
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