693
FXUS63 KLMK 190447
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
* SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD, BUT A SPIN UP TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WEST OF I-65. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON THE FRONT
EDGE OF THE STORMS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
* SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FROST
MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, FROST AND
POTENTIALLY A LIGHT FREEZE LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
THE LLJ IS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN INTENSITY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND WABASH VALLEY AT THIS TIME, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. A
LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR
WESTERN CWA BORDER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE,
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 200-400 J/KG OF MLCAPE, WITH
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR TREND DOWN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, SHEAR IS STRONG (AS
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED), WITH 45-50 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QLCS SPIN-UPS. SO FAR, OBSERVED WIND GUSTS TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA HAVE ONLY RANGED FROM 25-35 MPH, SO THE NEAR-
SFC STABLE LAYER APPEARS TO BE HOLDING AT THIS TIME.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THE SECTION OF THE
QLCS THAT EXTENDS FROM AROUND DIXON, KY TO VINCENNES, IN. OVER THE
PAST 30-60 MINUTES, A FEW WAVES/BREAKS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE LINE,
AND THERE IS A BIT OF A LLVL VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT EXTENDING ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER FROM A WASHED OUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. ON THE OTHER HAND, LIMITED BUOYANCY AND RELATIVELY
HIGH LCLS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD SUPPRESS THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. AS THIS PORTION OF THE LINE MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN IN
COUNTIES, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES,
THOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW.
WE'LL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TONIGHT, AS WE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND THE COLUMN
SATURATES.
ISSUED AT 847 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AT THIS 0Z HOUR, THE REGION IS UNDER THIN UPPER SKY COVER AND SEEING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE RELAXED AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S. SOME
COOLER SPOTS ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. THIS INVERSION
WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIND GUSTS AND STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY, THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOT PRODUCED WINDS OF HIGHER MAGNITUDE. THOUGH THE
LLJ IS JUST BEGINNING TO RAMP UP, SO WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS BEGIN IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
DECREASE IN MAX WINDS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AROUND 40-
45KTS.
STILL THINKING THAT THE CONCERN FOR WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS, WHERE THE COLUMN SATURATES, WE COULD
SEE SOME WINDS ALOFT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. AFTER THE COLUMN HAS
SATURATED, WE SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS MELLOW TO AROUND 20-25MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. A DIURNAL CU FIELD WAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH A FEW MID 80 READINGS
DOWN IN THE I-165 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 83-88 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD SNEAK INTO OUR FAR NW CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, A WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES FROM THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS, LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, A 55-60KT LOW-
LEVEL JET AXIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PLUME OF LOW-MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON,
ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE MARKEDLY
AS ONE HEADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ONGOING CONVECTION
MAY BE STRONG/SEVERE OUT ACROSS WESTERN KY. HOWEVER, AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS, WEAKENING OF THIS LINE
IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THE LOW INSTABILITY PRESENT, THE HIGH
MOMENTUM WINDS ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL TURNING ON
THE HODOGRAPHS, A SPIN UP TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCES OF A TORNADO WOULD BE IN AREAS WEST OF I-65.
SOMEWHAT OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS OUT AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVERNIGHT REVEAL AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. AS INITIAL PRECIPITATION FALLS
THROUGH THIS DRY LAYER, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE ABLE TO
BRING SOME OF THIS 55-60KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, I'VE SEEN THIS OCCUR
ON A FEW OCCASIONS IN THE LAST FEW YEARS. IN GENERAL, IT APPEARS
THAT WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH IF THAT HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR COMES DOWN, SOME ISOLATED GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT WE STILL HAVE AMPLE FOLIAGE ON TREES, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER WIND LOAD THESE POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS COULD
CAUSE SOME TREE DAMAGE, BLOW OUTSIDE OBJECTS AROUND, AND POSSIBLY
LEAD TO A FEW POWER OUTAGES IN SPOTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, WE HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HERE OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH MOST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST THREAT
OF 45-50 MPH GUSTS TO BE IN AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT, THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LOW RESIDENCE
TIME OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION. RAINFALL BASIN AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO
1.50 INCHES LOOK LIKELY, THOUGH A FEW 1.75 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW.
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLICE THROUGH THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AROUND 11-12Z SUNDAY AND THEN EXIT THE CWA BY 13-14Z. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS, BUT THE THREAT OF GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN. THE MODELS ARE A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLEARING, SO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MIXING LOOK
LESS LIKELY. THEREFORE, WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER, IF WE WERE TO CLEAR OUT A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST, THE WIND GUSTS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER AND ANOTHER
WIND ADVISORY COULD BE REQUIRED. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL BE EARLY IN
THE DAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL. COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER INITIAL HIGHS IN THE 60S,
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 50S BY SUNDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN
INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN, MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE VERY SCANT, AND WE'LL LIKELY
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE REGION. BY MID-WEEK THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP THE OHIO VALLEY IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH MAINLY DRY, BUT COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL WITH MAINLY 45-50 DEGREE READINGS FOR LOWS.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH MID-UPPER 60S OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY WITH LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S AND THE LOWER 40S. WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY WITH ONLY LOW-MID
60S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO FEATURE
CLEARER SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ON THE RIDGES. HERE
FROST AND A POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZE LOOK INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES MAY EJECT OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT APPEARS WE'LL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS EASTWARD.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ROLLS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. MID-UPPER 60S
WILL BE FOUND OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MILDER WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S, WITH SIMILAR READINGS FOR
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A LLJ HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION RESULTING
IN LLWS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE S/SSW AT 10-12KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS BEING POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
ARE CROSSING THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS TO 35-40KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KHNB BY
19/10Z, KSDF/KBWG BY 19/12Z AND KLEX/KRGA BY 19/13-14Z. ANOTHER THIN
LINE OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
DAYBREAK. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...CSG/SRW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SRW
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