567
FXUS63 KLMK 190622
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
222 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BRINGING A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER
THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY. A FEW 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
NOW THROUGH MIDDAY...
AT THIS HOUR, A BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. AS
EXPECTED, A LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS LED TO A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION, SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME, RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC
LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
INTENSIFICATION OF A 50-60 KT LLJ. AS A RESULT, STRONGER WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEGUN TO REACH THE SURFACE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH
SEVERAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH BEING OBSERVED AT AREA MESONET AND
ASOS SITES.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION SPURRED ON BY THE
LLJ SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN
THE LEADING LINE AND THE SFC COLD FRONT, WHICH IS ANALYZED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION, LIMITING THE
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE AXIS OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE LOSS OF
THE STRONGER H85 WINDS COMBINED WITH SATURATION OF THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING,
AND THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY AROUND 09Z,
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN ABOUT 6 HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUR EASTERN
ZONES BY LATE MORNING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, STEEPENING OF
LLVL LAPSE RATES LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR 200-400 J/KG
MLCAPE TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHALLOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SHOWERS FOR LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
STEADILY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE, AND ARE UNLIKELY TO WARM ANY IF AT
ALL AFTER SUNRISE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
STRONG H85 COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S WITHIN THE
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WHILE THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT THE TOP END POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROGS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 25-35 KT WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED TO COVER
STRONGER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO
THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS ACROSS THE
GULF STATES, WINDS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW-TO-MID 40S BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESCENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
INCREASING SW RETURN FLOW, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY, WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL YIELD SUNNY SKIES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST. SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHERN KY COULD TOP OUT
NEAR 70 F.
STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE BL MIXED AND MILDER
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AS IT SPINS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE
DEPTH/AVAILABILITY IS PRETTY LIMITED, SO THIS WINDOW WILL BE QUITE
SHORT. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH GUSTY WINDS
VEERING WESTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S.
STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND TUESDAY'S
COLD FRONT. WE'LL HAVE DEEP W/NW FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
WRAP EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.
THIS WILL BRING US OUR COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON. ELEVATED
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CRASHING TOO MUCH
TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL STAY NOTABLY COOL, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LEAD TO OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S LOOK POSSIBLE, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FROST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY, RESULTING
IN A COOL, SUNNY DAY. AFTER THE FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY
STAY DRY INTO FRIDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE OZARKS. SOUTHERLY WARM, MOIST AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS
IN THE 60S SHOULD BE COMMON LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A LLJ HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION RESULTING
IN LLWS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE S/SSW AT 10-12KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS BEING POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
ARE CROSSING THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS TO 35-40KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KHNB BY
19/10Z, KSDF/KBWG BY 19/12Z AND KLEX/KRGA BY 19/13-14Z. ANOTHER THIN
LINE OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
DAYBREAK. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page