614
FXUS63 KLMK 191447
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BRINGING A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER
THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY. A FEW 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LMK FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS PIVOTING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT THIS HOUR. WE HAVE ANOTHER ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR
MADISON IN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BOWLING GREEN REGION.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE
BOWLING GREEN REGION WHERE WE'RE STILL GETTING SOME TICKS OF
LIGHTNING. THIS ARCING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF ANY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING
LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH THIS SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION. KY MESONET
GUSTS MAINLY HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL
THINKING IS THAT DUE TO SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES, THE CHANCES OF
MIXING ANY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR IS PRETTY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE DOWN IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA OVER
TOWARD GLASGOW AND DOWN THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY CORRIDOR WHERE SOME
35-40 MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS EVEN A QUICK, BUT
ISOLATED 50 MPH GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS
IN THE DATA, WE'LL LIKELY LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 1100 AM
EDT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR WARNING AREA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO FAR
WESTERN KY. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLEARING LINE AND SEE HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
THE COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ALONG OUR BORDER WITH WFO JKL AND SHOULD
EXIT OUR CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITHIN THE PENCIL THIN
LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL INTERFACE, WIND
GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS EAST OF I-65 WITH A SMALL BREAK
IN THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WE'VE SEEN THIS MORNING.
FURTHER TO THE WEST, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PIVOTING INTO
THE REGION. A STRONGLY SYNOPTIC FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION MOVED
FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST IN AND FAR NW KY. THIS BAND
PRODUCED 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS JUST TO THE WEST OF DUBOIS COUNTY.
THIS BAND CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA, BUT
THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS BAND CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS IT HEADS
EAST. THIS BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE I-65 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT HOUR
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH.
FURTHER SOUTH, A TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ACROSS
MUHLENBERG AND CHRISTIAN COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
ALSO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IMPACTING AREAS FROM
BOWLING GREEN NORTHWARD TO MAMMOTH CAVE NP. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
COMBINATION OF SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR SHOW OUR WELL ADVERTISED
COLD FRONT PUSHING JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR. AS
THIS BAND MOVES EASTWARD, WE'LL STILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH IN SPOTS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TO THE WEST OF I-65, A BREAK IN THE RAIN AND WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR
A FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT SEVERE, BUT THIS BAND OF
STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT,
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1100
AM EDT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
NOW THROUGH MIDDAY...
AT THIS HOUR, A BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. AS
EXPECTED, A LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS LED TO A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION, SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME, RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC
LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
INTENSIFICATION OF A 50-60 KT LLJ. AS A RESULT, STRONGER WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEGUN TO REACH THE SURFACE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH
SEVERAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH BEING OBSERVED AT AREA MESONET AND
ASOS SITES.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION SPURRED ON BY THE
LLJ SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN
THE LEADING LINE AND THE SFC COLD FRONT, WHICH IS ANALYZED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION, LIMITING THE
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE AXIS OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE LOSS OF
THE STRONGER H85 WINDS COMBINED WITH SATURATION OF THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING,
AND THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY AROUND 09Z,
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN ABOUT 6 HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUR EASTERN
ZONES BY LATE MORNING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, STEEPENING OF
LLVL LAPSE RATES LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR 200-400 J/KG
MLCAPE TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHALLOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SHOWERS FOR LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
STEADILY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE, AND ARE UNLIKELY TO WARM ANY IF AT
ALL AFTER SUNRISE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
STRONG H85 COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S WITHIN THE
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WHILE THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT THE TOP END POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROGS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 25-35 KT WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED TO COVER
STRONGER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO
THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS ACROSS THE
GULF STATES, WINDS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW-TO-MID 40S BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESCENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
INCREASING SW RETURN FLOW, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY, WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL YIELD SUNNY SKIES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST. SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHERN KY COULD TOP OUT
NEAR 70 F.
STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE BL MIXED AND MILDER
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AS IT SPINS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE
DEPTH/AVAILABILITY IS PRETTY LIMITED, SO THIS WINDOW WILL BE QUITE
SHORT. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH GUSTY WINDS
VEERING WESTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S.
STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND TUESDAY'S
COLD FRONT. WE'LL HAVE DEEP W/NW FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
WRAP EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.
THIS WILL BRING US OUR COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON. ELEVATED
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CRASHING TOO MUCH
TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL STAY NOTABLY COOL, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LEAD TO OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S LOOK POSSIBLE, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FROST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY, RESULTING
IN A COOL, SUNNY DAY. AFTER THE FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY
STAY DRY INTO FRIDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE OZARKS. SOUTHERLY WARM, MOIST AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS
IN THE 60S SHOULD BE COMMON LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED AN SDF-BWG LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD LEX AND RGA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
PASSES, WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING, WITH 20-30
KT GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK SHOULD ALSO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TODAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AROUND 21-23Z
THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....CSG
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