184
FXUS63 KLMK 201954
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
354 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS YIELDING FAIR WEATHER TODAY, WITH A
DRY COLUMN AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON, AND SOME LOW 70S LOOK LIKELY SW OF I-
165. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS GA/SC. IN ADDITION, LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS MN, WITH A COLD FRONT CUTTING
SOUTH THROUGH IA, MO, AND KS.
TONIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DESCEND SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY, REACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z TUE. SW FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES SHARPLY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT, WITH
A 50 KT SW LLJ FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SCANT TONIGHT DESPITE THE ROBUST LLJ. PW
VALUES ONLY INCREASE TO A NARROW PLUME OF 0.8-1.0 INCHES JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A NARROW RIBBON BETWEEN 6-
10 KFT, WHICH MAY JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY IN MANY LOCATIONS. WE WILL
SEE A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASS WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN 1-9 AM.
CLOUDS THEN SCATTER OUT, WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HEADING INTO TUE AFTERNOON IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KY WITH HIGH-BASED CU. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH BY
TUE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL STAY UP AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH. AND WE MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY IN CENTRAL KY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
MID 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN KY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL KY
COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE
SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT
TEMPS TO TUMBLE WITH A DECOUPLED BL. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING OF LOW TO
MID 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
THE MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
DRY FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE'LL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PW VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 1
INCH ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN MORE PRECISE TIMING
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS LOW. THESE SHOWERS DO LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT IN
NATURE OVERALL, WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. MAIN IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS, WITH LLWS CONCERNS BETWEEN 03-10Z TUESDAY.
SSW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 10+ KTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO 15+ KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET. TONIGHT, A 45-50 KT SW
LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
CREATE LLWS CONDITIONS AS A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSES THE
REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z, IN A
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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