476
FXUS63 KLMK 210657
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
257 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SWING THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
MORNING, AND SHOULD BE CLEAN THROUGH THE AREA GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE LACKS ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE, HOWEVER WE WILL
SEE SOME INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING BEFORE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TAKE HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE H85-H7 LAYER TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR NE CWA THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING,
OTHERWISE MOST EVERYONE WILL STAY DRY.
OTHER THAN THAT, THE BIG STORY FOR THE DAY WILL BE GUSTY W WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH MOSTLY. A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES GIVEN PRETTY DEEP PM MIXING. TOUGH CALL ON MAX
TEMPS TODAY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COOL ADVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING UP A
BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL, WE'LL NOTICE MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH MINIMUM VALUES MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 40S. VALLEYS MAY
STILL DECOUPLE A LITTLE BIT SO WILL CALL FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
COOLEST SPOTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PATTERN FEATURES TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. BY LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK, WE'LL BE IN DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLED OVER THE AREA. OVERALL, THIS RESULTS IN A DRY AND COOL
STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE BIGGEST FOCUS WILL BE ON FROST POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH WED/THURSDAY NIGHTS. COULD EVEN SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR SOME BY
FRIDAY AM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY RAW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
(NE CWA) TO MID 60S (SW CWA). GUSTY WEST WINDS WON'T HELP THE
TEMPERATURE "FEEL" MUCH AS THEY COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY UP ENOUGH FOR MOST AREAS TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT. NEVERTHELESS, LOOK FOR
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE COOL SPOTS, WITH LOWS AROUND 40 FOR THE
GENERALLY MILDER LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY IN THE
COOLER VALLEYS.
THURSDAY BRINGS SOME SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE,
AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER COOL ADVECTION. STILL, LOOKING FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 60S FOR MOST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST APPEAR MORE LIKELY HERE, AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A
FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IF CURRENT DATA/TRENDS HOLD. FRIDAY REMAINS
BELOW NORMAL UNDER INCREASING SKY COVER AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING INTO
THE LOW AND MID 60S FOR MOST.
THE WEEKEND - MONDAY...
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY TOWARD OUR AREA.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER
THEY STILL DIFFER NOTABLY ABOUT HOW TO HANDLE IT ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME DATA KEEPS IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA, AND
SOME IMPACT US WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS THAT SOME FORM OF A WEAK REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HOW THE IMPRESSIVE/ANOMALOUS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIG AND DEVELOPS INTO
EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO
OUR AREA, BUT GOING TO HAVE TO WORK THROUGH SOME DETAILS BEFORE GET
TOO FOCUSED ON THAT SIGNAL. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND/NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE 40-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
CORE OVER THE AREA, AND THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COMPONENT
THAT WILL EASE UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR A
DRY COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH TODAY, THEN
SLACKENING TOWARD SUNSET. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND VFR SKIES TO
PREVAIL, BUT WILL NOTE SOME SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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