133
FXUS63 KLMK 220539
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
* BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
* AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THAT TIME RANGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
THERE ARE SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND FAR EASTERN AREAS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH STEADY, LIGHT WINDS.
CAA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE REGION WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND A
SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH IS YIELDING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
COOLER, DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS STREAMING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CAA, SFC
TEMPS ARE RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH THE AID
OF SUNSHINE.
DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IL AND IN TONIGHT. WE WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE
AREA. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SKIES QUICKLY REVERT TO
MOSTLY CLEAR.
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, THOUGH
ELEVATED SFC WINDS WILL KEEP THE NEAR-SFC LAYER A LITTLE BETTER
MIXED AND KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
STILL BE CHILLY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN. GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WE'LL ALSO
LIKELY MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES DIPPING TO 30-35% IN CENTRAL KY.
WITH A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN AND THE
NORTHERN BLUEGRASS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. AT LEAST IT WILL BE
SUNNY, WHICH WILL CERTAINLY HELP GIVEN THE BREEZY WINDS.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING A
STRETCH OF COOL, DRY WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY STARTS
TO RELAX BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP THE BL DECOUPLE A BIT
MORE. IN PARTICULAR, OUR COOLEST VALLEYS/SHELTERED SPOTS COULD DIP
INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FROST. MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY, AND IT'LL BE
A NICE COOL FALL DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND
WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON - MOST
LIKELY LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY AND UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHERN KY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT DOES APPEAR
LINGERING RIDGING AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE WEEKEND - MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE STAY RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND IF A SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION PLAYS OUT WITH THE
UPSTREAM WAVE. SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO DIP SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY, KEEPING MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASING PW VALUES TO NEAR
NORMAL (0.9-1.0 INCH) OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE MEMBERS ARE
INCREASINGLY SPLIT ON PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. SO THIS FORECAST LEANS DRIER FOR SATURDAY, BUT WE'LL
HOLD ONTO "CHANCE" POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WE MAY SEE A DEEPER ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COULD INITIATE
STRONGER SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE AREA OR PERHAPS OFF TO OUR
WEST. THIS IDEA WOULD BRING US WARMER TEMPS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. LOOK FOR LIGHT
WSW TO W WINDS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE STRONGER W WINDS TAKE HOLD BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SLACKEN BY EARLY EVENING, WITH LIGHT WSW TAKING OVER ONCE
AGAIN. VERY FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS
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