396
FXUS63 KLMK 060618
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY AND WARM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
* THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SHOWERS AND A FEW POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY EVENING.
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THIS IS A DRY COLD FRONT, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR
SKIES AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A SW TRAILING COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY HAVE
SURGED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, THANKS IN PART TO BREEZY SW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. A BRIEF UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE COOLER, DRIER AIR THAT
STREAMS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER N/NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN, WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS OF SOUTHERN IN AND
CENTRAL KY. LOW 40S LOOK MORE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN KY.
THURSDAY LOOKS PLEASANT, BUT COOLER THAN TODAY. WE'LL HAVE FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST.
IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS BREEZY AS TODAY, WITH 5-10 MPH WINDS VEERING
E/SE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MILDER CONDITIONS IN THE OH VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT, WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME COOL LOW-LYING SPOTS
IN THE BLUEGRASS MAY STILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE TEMPS
STABILIZE AND START TO RISE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
TROUGHING WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT OVER THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL AND MID-
LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL HELP TO PROVIDE MORE ASCENT. STRONG WAA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO INCREASE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S.
PWATS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1.0-1.25 INCHES RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER WITH
LESS THAN 500 J/KG EXPECTED ALONG A TALL AND SKINNY PROFILE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FEW TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE.
THOUGH THE INSTABILITY PROFILE IS WEAK, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND
55KTS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 20-25KTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO
DISPLAYS A VEER-BACK-VEER PROFILE, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THIS FORECASTED ENVIRONMENT, ISOLATED SEVERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IN EFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD FRONT
MAY SLIGHTLY OUTRUN THE BETTER FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH, WHICH WOULD
FURTHER DECREASE OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION.
SATURDAY - MID NEXT WEEK...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN BROAD TROUGHING ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY.
ON SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, DEEPER TROUGHING WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
BRINGING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL SEND STRONG CAA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, WHICH WILL PREVENT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM MOVING THROUGH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH, WOULDN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST, IT
WILL QUICKLY OCCLUDE AND MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND THE MOISTURE AROUND THE
LOW, WE COULD SEE SOME MIXED RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM, NOT EXPECTING THIS SNOW TO BE SUPER
IMPACTFUL, BUT A LIGHT DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, HELPING TO BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. MONDAY
MORNING, WE ARE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BUT AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH,
WINDS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE SDF EXTENDED PERIOD, LLWS IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...KDW
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