330
FXUS63 KLMK 061743
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1243 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SHOWERS AND A FEW POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LITTLE TO SPEAK OF FROM A
SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT. LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE WITH
STEADY SE WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
TODAY, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO REPLACE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE HIGH CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO CAA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 TO 70 WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND THE WARMEST IN AND AROUND LOGAN
COUNTY.
TONIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MAKING IT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST,
WINDS CONTINUE VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY
MORNING, INCREASING WAA AND MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 40S IN OUR NORTHEASTERN
COMMUNITIES TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COMMUNITIES. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN ENTERING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
FRIDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE MILDLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OZARKS
WHILE AT THE SURFACE, A LOW, JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND WITH 15 TO 20 MPH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS DEW POINTS LIFT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WORK
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY BEFORE EXPANDING
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, BUT IT'S LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. FROM THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NASHVILLE. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH
MLCAPE TOPPING OUT AROUND 700 TO 800 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST PARAMETER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 0-6 KM
VALUES BEING OVER 50 KNOTS. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBILITY
FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION FOR A LIMITED TIME BEFORE DIURNAL WARMING IS
LOST AND AN INVERSION BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
SPC KEEPS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT BECAUSE OF THE HAIL RISK. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP PROMOTE SUPERCELL GROWTH WHICH WOULD DRIVE
HAIL GROWTH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE STEEPER THAN THE LOW
LEVELS, BUT STILL FAIRLY WEAK. STILL BELIEVE THIS IS A LOW-END
SLIGHT RISK. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPIN-UP EARLY IN
THE EVENING, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FADE. THEN THE REST OF THE
EVENING A LIMITED HAIL RISK BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA.
INCREASING PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BRING A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. CURRENTLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LIMITED WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MONDAY AND INTO THE 20S MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS RETURN FLOW EARLY TUESDAY
BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES DAILY THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
QUIET AND VFR DAY CONTINUES WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A LIGHT E TO ESE
WIND. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER THIS EVENING AND VEER TO A MORE SE
COMPONENT, HOWEVER WE WILL SEE A 40-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET RAMP UP
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LLWS MENTION BELOW
2K FEET TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AND WILL ALSO INCREASE MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME (STILL VFR). LLWS SHOULD START TO LET GO OF
THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE AS SURFACE GUSTS KICK IN WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR S TO SSW WINDS GUSTING UP
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LIKELY MVFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF CYCLE,
HOWEVER LOOK FOR IT IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS
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