079
FXUS63 KLMK 072322
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
622 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED GIVEN WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPS.
* COLD MORNINGS IN THE 20S TO UPPER TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
THE FIRST LINE OF WEAKLY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. OVER THE LAST
HOUR, WE HAVE SEEN SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS FORM WITHIN THIS LINE. A
NOSE OF UNINHIBITED 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS MOVING INTO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. THE APPROACHING LINE OF CONVECTION, WILL BE ABLE
TO UTILIZE THIS INSTABILITY AND COULD SEE SOME MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS
IN THIS REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WERE ALSO IN THE LOW
70S, WHICH WILL ALSO ASSIST THESE STORMS. 0-1KM SHEAR IS CURRENTLY
25KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35KTS, WHICH IS AMPLE FOR EFFICIENT STORM
ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY, 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SRH IS NEAR 200 M2/S2,
WHICH INCREASES THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. FOR THESE REASONS, A TORNADO
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALLEN, MONROE, CUMBERLAND, AND CLINTON
COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY. THIS WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH 4Z (10 PM CT).
ADDITIONALLY, THE FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE
HEATING TO RECOVER THE ENVIRONMENT AND BRING A TONGUE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COLD FRONT IS
JUST NOW ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED
OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT,
WHERE WE DO EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY. SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW
TALL, SKINNY CAPE AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS, WHICH MEANS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE PASSES. WITH THIS SAID,
SUNSET IS COMING SOON, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE,
THEREFORE, STORMS WILL LIKELY LOSE INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
MANY OBSERVATIONS SITES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ACTUAL VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
TONIGHT, AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST SOUTHWEST RATHER THAN SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM, AND
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY WEST TO EAST
AIRFLOW AS IT SITS AT THE BOTTOM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA, BRINING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
(10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), AND ON MONDAY RANGING FROM MID
30S TO NEAR 40 (ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME SPOTS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL).
THERE'S A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS COLD PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL PREDICTIONS. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR, IT'S
EXPECTED TO MELT QUICKLY DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, CAUSING
MINIMAL ISSUES. THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI HAS ABOUT A 30-70% CHANCE OF
HAVING SOME SORT OF WINTRY WEATHER, AND ONLY A 5% CHANCE OF HAVING A
MINOR IMPACT.BY TUESDAY, CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER AIR WILL RETURN,
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED SOUTHERN INDIANA AND IS ACCOMPANIED
BY A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS. THIS LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH SDF
WITHIN THE HOUR. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS OVER THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. BETWEEN THE FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A CLEAR OF CLOUDS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN LIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY LINGER, BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING, MAINLY AT
BWG/LEX/RGA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS IN THE TAFS, GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. IN THE
MORNING, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SW AROUND 4-8KTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...SRW
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