000
FXUS63 KLMK 080516
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1216 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DENSE FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED GIVEN WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPS.
* COLD MORNINGS IN THE 20S TO UPPER TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. COMBINATION OF CLEARING
SKIES, WET GROUND, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN MANY AREAS. MOST OF THE FOG NOW IS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF THE US 27/127 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE FOG TO
DEVELOP MORE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE REPLACED THE SPS
FOR FOG WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM EST. FOG WILL BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS WITH VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO IN LOW-
LYING AND TYPICAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
ISSUED AT 907 PM ES FRI NOV 7 2025
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BEHIND THE
BAND OF SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION,
WHICH WILL PUSH THE REMAINDER OF THE CLOUDS OUT. FOG IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY LOW-LYING AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN TODAY. WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR THIS REASON, AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AROUND MIDNIGHT, WE WILL REEVALUATE
THE FOG TO EITHER DROP, REISSUE, OR UPGRADE THE FOG SPS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
MANY OBSERVATIONS SITES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ACTUAL VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
TONIGHT, AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST SOUTHWEST RATHER THAN SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM, AND
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY WEST TO EAST
AIRFLOW AS IT SITS AT THE BOTTOM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA, BRINING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
(10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), AND ON MONDAY RANGING FROM MID
30S TO NEAR 40 (ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME SPOTS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL).
THERE'S A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS COLD PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL PREDICTIONS. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR, IT'S
EXPECTED TO MELT QUICKLY DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, CAUSING
MINIMAL ISSUES. THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI HAS ABOUT A 30-70% CHANCE OF
HAVING SOME SORT OF WINTRY WEATHER, AND ONLY A 5% CHANCE OF HAVING A
MINOR IMPACT.BY TUESDAY, CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER AIR WILL RETURN,
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD AND OUT OF KY EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUNDS, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE WORST OF THE FOG WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOP
TO EKX TO CVG. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE, WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED WITH VSBYS STAYING AROUND 1/4SM OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
08/14-15Z.
FOR THIS UPDATE, HAVE TAKEN KBWG AND KLEX DOWN TO 1/4SM FG WITH
VV002-003 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. KSDF LOOKS TO STAY VFR
FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT WE MAY SEE VSBYS DIP TO AROUND 4SM THERE BY
08/08Z. RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AFTER 08/15Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ084-089>092.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM....MCK
AVIATION.....MJ
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