611
FXUS63 KLMK 090504
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1204 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY COULD HAVE A CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THEM.
* VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. A 1007 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL IL,
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN AR. CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY LATE THIS EVENING, WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL KY
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 06-
12Z SUNDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, WHICH SUGGESTS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. BRIEFLY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 0.10-
0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE BIGGER SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACT WILL COME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW. STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, GUSTY NW WINDS, AND FALLING TEMPS. TEMPS
WILL TUMBLE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.
ALL IN ALL, EXPECT A GRAY, BLUSTERY SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. IT DOES STILL APPEAR ANY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY EVENING SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY LEADING TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN AN
INCH FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF FOLKS) IN GRASS AND ON ROOFTOPS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKYCOVER IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. IT'S A PRETTY NICE DAY
FOR NOVEMBER, HOWEVER A SFC LOW WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT, THAT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL BE PIVOTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WABASH VALLEY AND RIDE ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY. DESPITE SPC
DRAWING A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION,
WITH A LOW-CAPE HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO FEED OFF OF. LAPSE RATES
MAY BE RATHER STEEP AS WELL, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES, BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS VERY MARGINAL.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING, LEADING TO OUR TEMPS TO BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, BUT THEN FALLING TO THE LOW
40S BY THE AFTERNOON. TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW FLOW AND CAA. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAKING IT FEEL
RATHER RAW AND COLD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER
THE LIGHT SNOW BY THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
===== SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT =====
A RATHER DEEP AND PRONOUNCED UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY, WHICH
WILL NOT ONLY BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR,
BUT THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO OUR SFC TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO OUR SFC WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS WE REMAIN WITHIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON SEEING
OUR WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER TEENS AS WELL. UNDER STRONG CAA, TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT, WITH TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO THE LOW 20S, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT OUR TYPICAL COOL SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WON'T
BE AS STRONG TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WIND CHILLS ARE STILL LIKELY TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS, SOME SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
BESIDE THE BITTER WIND CHILLS COMING, OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE
SEASON ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA, BUT THIS
FAR SOUTH WE WILL LIKELY SEEING LIGHT TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE DGZ, THOUGH BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT, WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. WILL BE WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF WINTER IMPACTS, STILL EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS FOR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE REGION. KY
MESONET OBS SHOW THAT 2-INCH AND 4-INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S. THESE GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT LIKELY CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH
EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR ARRIVING ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING, SOME
VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR, A COATING ON ELEVATED SURFACES, DECKS, AND
ROOFTOPS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME GRASSY ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
ACHIEVABLE OVER IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION, IN AREAS EAST OF I-75 IF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
THESE ARE GOING TO BE MAINLY ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. AS FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS, THE PROBABILISTIC PRECIP PORTAL INDICATES A 40% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR LOUISVILLE, A 50% CHANCE FOR LEXINGTON,
AND JUST A 10% CHANCE FOR BOWLING GREEN. PROBS ARE HIGHER THE
FURTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST, WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED.
MONDAY COULD BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF WINTER IMPACTS, AS SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. TYPICALLY, SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID-30S COMBINED WARM SOIL TEMPS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS, SNOW RATES MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WARM
GROUND. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND POTENTIAL FOR 50-
100+ J/KG OF SBCAPE, SO THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS LIGHTING UP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH INCREASED SNOWFALL
RATES, BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THESE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD CAUSE SOME IMPACTS.
===== TUESDAY - FRIDAY =====
THE UPPER LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY, LEADING TO AN END
OF THE ARTIC-LIKE TEMPS. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE 40S ON TUESDAY,
BUT UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RAMP UP SW FLOW ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO WAA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK PERTURBATION AND WARM ADVECTION SCHEME MAY RESULT IN SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE IN
MODELS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD
TREND WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
PERIOD WILL START OFF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09/07Z TO 09/13Z. BEHIND THE FRONT,
LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1200-1800 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE BEING POSSIBLE. AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION, WE
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......EBW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM....CJP
AVIATION.....MJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page