189
FXUS63 KLMK 121122
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
622 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND MILDER WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH. VERY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. A GOOD NIGHT THUS FAR FOR VIEWING THE AURORAS. TEMPERATURE
WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS EXPECTED, A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION HAS
REMAINED IN PLACE WHICH IS KEEPING MUCH OF THIS LLJ HIGHER MOMENTUM
AIR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS, WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH
WILL BE SEEN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AS
THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS
WINDS CALM DOWN, WE'LL GET SOME ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN MOST
AREAS. MORE SHELTERED/LOW-LYING AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE
MID 30S.
FOR TODAY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WIND COMPONENT. CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE
AS WE TYPICALLY OVERPERFORM ON TEMPS WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM
ADVECTIVE SCHEMES. IN THIS CASE, I CAN SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
FOR TONIGHT, QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS AND TYPICAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
SWAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING A LITTLE MILDER
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT AND A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE GRADIENT WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND LOWER 60S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
OUT TOWARD THE I-165 CORRIDOR, TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA AND NORTH FL WHICH WILL YIELD A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A MILD DAY IS
EXPECT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. IF THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, BUT COOLER. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. BY TUESDAY, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH AXIS
WILL ENTER THE PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED OFF THE
WESTERN GULF AND UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG -NAO PATTERN GETS
UNDERWAY. THIS HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL GIVE THE MODELS FITS AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WILL BE RATHER POOR. MORE RECENT SIGNAL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO TARGET THE 11/20-21 PERIOD WITH A STRONG
SIGNAL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT HERE REMAINS
RATHER POOR, GIVEN THE PATTERN, BUT THE EURO REMAINS QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH HERE. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BLOCKING, EXACT
DETAILS AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED IN
LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE, NO REAL CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH STORMS
SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH THE REGION LEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO LATE NOVEMBER
AND MODEL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER
STRONG -AO/-NAO PATTERN. LATEST MJO FORECAST HAVE GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY HERE WITH THE MJO PULSE PUSHING FROM PHASE 6 INTO PHASE
7. THIS MJO SURGE COMBINED WITH AN EMERGING POSITIVE EAST ASIAN
MOUNTAIN TORQUE SHOULD YIELD A STRONGER WESTERLY WIND MOMENTUM
LEADING TO HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
WOULD SEND A RIDGE INTO AK AND LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING TANKING OF
THE EPO.
AS THIS ALL OCCURS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
WE'LL SEE A SUDDEN WARMING OF THE STRATOSPHERE OVER CANADA BY LATE
NOVEMBER. PRETTY RARE TO SEE A SUDDEN WARMING THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS USUALLY PRECEDE SOME
PERTURBATION OF THE PV WHICH CAN UNLEASH COLDER AIR MASSES INTO THE
US. THE EURO WEEKLIES OUT THROUGH DECEMBER HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE WEST, TROUGH EAST PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
DECEMBER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH HISTORICAL DECEMBERS THAT FEATURE LA
NINA IN THE PACIFIC. AS STATED YESTERDAY, A QUICK START TO WINTER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND
DECEMBER COULD END UP BEING VERY COLD FOR OUR AREA WITH INCREASING
THREATS OF WINTRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WINDS AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING PERIOD. OVERNIGHT, 50KT LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER A BIT MUTED.
NONETHELESS, CAN STILL SEE SOME GUSTS OF 20-30KTS THROUGH 12/10Z OR
SO AND THEN LLJ CORE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME, SO
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SW TO THE W
DURING THE DAY, WITH WINDS RELAXING AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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