757
FXUS63 KLMK 272040
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL BURST OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN IN.
* IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WEATHER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED BY MARGINAL GROUND/AIR TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
* ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS KY THAN
ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
KY AND SOUTHERN IN, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DESCENDING
WITHIN BROADER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING HAS ALLOWED FOR A
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LAYER TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND
SOUTHERN IN, WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WORK OFF TO THE EAST. BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET AS MIXING DIMINISHES.
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS
MAY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND THE KY BLUEGRASS COUNTIES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT STICKING AROUND TO SUPPORT A LIGHT
WEST WIND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COLD START TO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 20S AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER TEENS.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE
EAST COAST OF THE US AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MISS. AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. WITH THE HEART OF THE CP AIR MASS
SETTLING OVER OUR AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. WEST
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER, ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 MPH, BUT THIS WILL
STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. FORTUNATELY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION, SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING, AND TOP-DOWN MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS NEAR THE GROUND
SHOULD HANG TOUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW- AND MID-20S, WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE BLUEGRASS.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO MO, THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE MISS. VALLEY AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA. ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE, A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SUBLIMATION OF THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION HELPING TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERCOMES THE DRY LAYER NEAR THE SFC, SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN
FINE DETAILS BETWEEN THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS, WHICH HAVE A MORE
ROBUST INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION, AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH
IS WEAKER WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF PRECIPITATION. THE WEAKER
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO LESS COOLING AND A NORTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, WHILE THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PRELIMINARY HI-RES
GUIDANCE TENDS TOWARD THE SNOWIER/STRONGER SOLUTIONS, SHOWING AN
INITIAL BURST OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 700 MB SHOULD OVERWHELM THE LLVL COLD LAYER, CHANGING
PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA, WOULDN'T EXPECT THERE TO
BE MUCH OF AN INTERMEDIATE WINTRY MIX/ICE PERIOD, AS THE LLVL COLD
AIR SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY. BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN, THINK A
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN IN,
WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/SOUTH SOLUTIONS
VERIFY. ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO NORTHERN KY, A QUICK DUSTING TO 1/2"
LOOKS MOST LIKELY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS
STILL LOW-MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. WHILE THERE COULD BE A 3-6 HOUR
PERIOD OF MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO BRIEF SNOW-COVERED ROADS
(MAINLY IN SOUTHERN IN), THINK THAT OVERALL IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MINIMIZED DUE TO RELATIVELY MARGINAL SFC TEMPERATURES.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING,
POSSIBLY AS A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, BREEZY NW WINDS SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF CAA, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 20S BY
MONDAY MORNING. DRY, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
INTO THE MID-MISS. VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON
MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BRING OUR SECOND CHANCE FOR WINTRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE SETUP BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO KY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES, THOUGH THE KEY
DETAILS ARE STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE. FAIRLY ZONAL/SPLIT UPPER FLOW
MONDAY MORNING WILL AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A TROUGH DIGS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE LOWER MISS.
VALLEY. SFC RESPONSE OCCURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, TRANSITIONING TO A HATTERAS
LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF COLD AIR WHILE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF COMBINED WITH RISING MOTION AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
OF VARIABLE P-TYPES ACROSS THE AREA. TO THIS POINT, ECMWF P-TYPE
METEOGRAMS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF ENS MEMBERS WITH SNOW P-
TYPES ALONG THE OH RIVER, WHILE MORE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS.
AT THIS TIME, THERE EXISTS A COUPLE FAILURE MODES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG, AND IT MAY BE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR WAA TO OVERWHELM THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER. SECOND,
UNSUCCESSFUL PHASING OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE COULD LEAD TO A WEAKER
SYSTEM OVERALL AND LESS PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF EFI DOES
SHOW A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 1 OVER THE AREA, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOMALOUS SNOWFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE INGREDIENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER.
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM, DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE SPLIT
FLOW UPPER PATTERN MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, AS SUGGESTED BY THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
STRATUS/STRATOCU FIELD WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 3 KFT HAS OVERSPREAD
HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH TOWARD BWG OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WHILE CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO MVFR LEVELS, THEY APPEAR TO
HAVE STABILIZED JUST ABOVE 3 KFT, SO WILL CARRY A VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. W/NW WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT,
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER LATER TODAY, THOUGH ADDITIONAL WAVES
OF STRATUS MAY TRY TO SWING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS AT SDF/LEX/RGA/HNB AFTER 28/08Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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