110
FXUS63 KLMK 190518
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1218 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
* BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
FIRST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW EXITED THE LMK CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PLOW EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE POST FRONTAL WAKE, WE'RE SEEING WINDS DYING DOWN FOR
A BIT AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE IN. CURRENTLY THAT
FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH STL/SPI AND SHOULD ENTER OUR NW CWA
AFTER 19/06Z. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, THOUGH CURRENT SHORT-TERM HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE
OVERDOING THIS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR MOSAICS. AS THIS FRONT MOVES
CLOSER, WE'LL SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND THEN WE'LL SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER 19/09Z
OR SO. BEHIND THE FRONT, LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN QUITE A BIT AND
WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETICAL) TO OUR NORTH WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE JUST NORTH
OF THE LMK AREA.
OTHER QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER WE'LL SEE SOME REFREEZING OF
ROAD SURFACES TOWARD DAWN AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPS, THOUGH
LEGACY NAM3/NAM12/GFS CONTINUE TO BLAST COLD AIR INTO THE MID 20S BY
SUNRISE, WHILE HRRR KEEPS THINGS AROUND 29-30. BACK EDGE OF
RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND IS MOVING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO HAVE BEEN WATCHING WINDS
SLACKEN A BIT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT WHICH MAKES ME WONDER HOW MUCH
DRYING WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK BACK UP LATER TONIGHT. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM KY RWIS ARE IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S RIGHT NOW AND WE KNOW THAT ROAD TEMPS LAG AIR
TEMPS, SO IT COULD BE A RACE TO SEE HOW COLD THE ROADS COULD BE COME
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND SEE HOW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ISSUED AT 831 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
A VERY THIN CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KY. SPORADIC, ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS
LINE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE VERY WEAKLY UNSTABLE (~100 J/KG MUCAPE). WE CONTINUE
TO SEE PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH WITH THIS LINE, WHICH IS NOW
MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS. WE HAVE HAD A
SMALL AREA OF 50+ MPH WINDS OBSERVED FROM LOGAN, BUTLER COUNTIES
EAST ACROSS WARREN AND HART COUNTIES. WE HAVE A BIT MORE OF THE LLJ
WINDS MIXING DOWN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, SO LOCALIZED 50+ MPH
GUSTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME VERY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME PONDING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE LOUISVILLE METRO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. WE HAVE HAD
A COUPLE NARROW HEAVIER RAIN BANDS MERGE, WHICH IS STILL OCCURRING
OVER THE BLUEGRASS. SO SOME ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING
LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
AN UPPER LOW IS WORKING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST HEADED TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SYSTEM'S SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF
THE UPPER LOW IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES SOUTH NEAR
CHICAGO AND BACK TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, MODERATE ISENTROPIC LEFT IS
OCCURRING. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 55-65 KNOTS. THIS
HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
ALONG THE FRONT, WEST OF THE CWA, A THIN LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN IS
MOVING EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS HAS LIFTED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S, BUT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, BEGINNING COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN DUBOIS COUNTY, INDIANA AROUND 23Z THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES BY AROUND 04Z. THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING OUR BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. IT WAS LOOKING LIKE A WIND ADVISORY WAS GOING
TO BE NEEDED WITH EARLY WIND REPORTS FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA, BUT
SINCE THEN, THE CAM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING WELL ABOVE
OBSERVED WINDS. SOME OF THE DATA HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON GUSTS
LATER THIS EVENING. STILL, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCH CLOSER TO THE
LOWER LIMITS FOR A WIND ADVISORY (40 MPH). FOR NOW, THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
TONIGHT, BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION RAIN INTO LIGHT SNOW AROUND 05-06Z NEAR JASPER, INDIANA
TO AROUND 10Z ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA. A FEW FLAKES COULD BE
SEEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FARTHER SOUTH, BUT MOST OF THE
FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS BECAUSE FARTHER SOUTH THE DGZ DRIES,
BUT DEEPER MOISTURE SATURATES AT LEAST SOME OF THE DGZ OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S, ANY REMAINING WATER FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
FREEZE. ELEVATED WINDS AND A DELAY IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW
FREEZING SHOULD HELP DRY SURFACES.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED, LIFTING
THE TROUGH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. THIS WILL BEGIN CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY,
AND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WHOLE
CWA. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE HIGH PASSES EAST OF THE REGION, RETURNING
WAA TO THE REGION. AFTER A COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S, TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EAST, NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES, ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SEPARATE TWO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS. IT WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SOME PASSING CLOUD COVER
THE THE REGION AND MORE CAA. SUNDAY'S HIGHS GET LIMITED TO THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST EAST ACROSS
INDIANA, BRINGING WAA BACK TO THE CAA. HIGHS RETURN TO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY AND THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAS EXITED THE REGION. GETTING A BIT OF A
DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SOUTHERN KY AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM IND TO EVV BACK TO EAST OF
PAH AND HEADING EASTWARD. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. INITIALLY, WE'LL SEE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WIND FIELD, HOWEVER, AS THE SECOND COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, LOOK FOR GUSTY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. FOR NOW, MOST
LOCATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MVFR WITH CIGS AND VFR ON VSBYS.
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LOOKS OCCUR LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
MESOSCALE....MJ
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION.....MJ
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