909
FXUS63 KLMK 191752
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AORUND 30. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLACK ICE THIS MORNING. THE MOST COMMON AREAS WILL BE ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
* THE COLD SPELL WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM BACK UP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE LAST
30-45 MIN. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS
OCCURRING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS EXPECTED, WINDS HAVE PICKED BACK UP ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THOSE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
OF 35-40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HEADS INTO THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT, THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS ON
OUR DOORSTEP. CURRENT FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY BEDFORD,
IN SOUTHWEST TO HENDERSON,KY AND THEN DOWN TOWARD PADUCAH.
TEMPERATURES WEST OF I-65 WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
BY DAWN. OUT FURTHER EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S/AROUND 30 BY DAWN.
BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT, THE ATMOSPHERE IS STARTING TO DRY OUT A
BIT. STILL MAY SEE SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PART OF THE DGZ THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL KY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM WITH KY
MESONET STATIONS SHOWING 2IN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. PAVEMENT TEMPS
WERE STILL RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE PAVEMENT TEMPS TO DROP LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL. GUSTY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME DRYING OF ROAD
SURFACES. HOWEVER, BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHICH HAVE MORE AIR
EXPOSURE WILL COOL OFF AND RESIDUAL WATER FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINS MAY
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING. WE PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING
THIS THREAT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
FOR TODAY, UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PULL EAST OF THE REGION AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. DRIER AIR OUT TO THE WEST ACROSS MO WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY AFTERNOON, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SEEN THIS
MORNING BUT WINDS WILL START TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION. MID-UPPER 30S
WILL BE FOUND IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 40S DOWN ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE
TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL GET US INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. MID-UPPER 50S WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
KY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SCANT IN TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS. SO THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER RE-INFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOUTH OF THE
PARKWAYS, LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FORM THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHERN IN AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KY TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHERN KY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
PUTTING US BACK INTO THE LITTLE MILDER PATTERN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WE'LL SEE SOME LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LOWS LOWER-MID 40S.
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD, AN AREA OF UPPER
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TX WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW.
PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF. A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN HERE
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE BLUEGRASS TO THE
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 DOWN IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ATTEMPTING TO EXPAND MORE EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WITH LOW-MID 60S DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE HERE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINING IN PLACE. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE RIDGE
AXIS MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED OUT BOUNDARY TO LIFT MORE
NORTHWARD. CHRISTMAS DAY 2025 WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT AS WARM AS CHRISTMAS 2021. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 60S OVER SE IN AND INTO THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. MID-UPPER 60S LOOK LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WITH
A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY MAKING A RUN AT 70
DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MORNING'S LAYER
OR STRATUS IS BREAKING UP AND MOVING OUT. SKIES CLEAR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, TOMORROW MORNING, A
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. AS LLWS COMES TO AN END, WINDS MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS
GUSTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW
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