499
FXUS63 KLMK 200543
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1243 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TOMORROW UNDER SUNNY SKIES BEFORE A DRY
COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
* A WARMING TREND BEINGS ON MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH CHRISTMAS WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH SOME POSSIBLE
70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVE
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
DECOUPLING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN IN THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST
OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
A BIT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND EARLIER STRATUS CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS ALONG WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT, AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST PAST THE CWA, WAA RETURNS TO
THE AREA. WITH WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE NIGHT, KEEPING THE NEAR
SURFACE BETTER MIXED, THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING.
LOWS WILL STILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.
TOMORROW, CLEAR SKIES REMAIN AS ZONAL FLOW PUSHES THE SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ILLINOIS HEADED TOWARDS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE FRONT PUSHING AGAINST THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S FOR MOST. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT NEARS.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EAST, NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES, ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GET CARRIED SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT. STILL EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS TO PASS OVERHEAD, BUT
PRECIPITATION ISN'T EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. THE RETURN OF CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.
SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION, SKIES CLEAR, BUT
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S.
BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS GETTING
PUSHED OVER THE CWA, KEEPING WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET, WILL NOW GET
PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
FUNNEL WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING ON MONDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE COMING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
TO ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WAA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON MONDAY, BUT DAILY INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE 60S AND MAYBE A FEW 70S BY CHRISTMAS.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ADDITIONAL LOW-
END RAIN CHANGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. LATER THIS MORNING, A 45-50 KT LLJ WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT
SDF/HNB/BWG WHILE THE NEAR-SFC INVERSION HOLDS. ONCE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MIXING TAKES PLACE BY AROUND MIDDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE S/SW. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR A ~5K FT CLOUD DECK TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT BWG/LEX/RGA, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS
LIKELY AT LEX AND RGA AFTER 22Z. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM S/SW TO NW
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG
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