411
FXUS63 KLMK 210210
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
910 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
* OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A WASHOUT IS UNLIKELY.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AROUND CHRISTMAS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 LIKELY FROM CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS HOUR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, JUST LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
GIVEN A DECENT DRY AIR MIX DOWN SIGNAL (SIMILAR TO TODAY).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER A COUPLE OF HIGHLIGHTS WORTH NOTING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO GUST
OUT OF THE SSW TO NNE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MOST GUSTS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH, ALONG WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR MIX DOWN EVENT ONGOING. THE "DRY" COLD FRONT IS
SET FOR PASSAGE BETWEEN AROUND 7 OR 8 PM EST TO AROUND 1 OR 2 AM
EST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD FOR TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST, SUNDAY HIGHS ONLY RECOVER TO THE LOW
40S NORTH, AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT, THE RESULTING
STEADY WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR A NICE RECOVERY FROM MORNING LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE, TO MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S. THE MORNING WILL START OUT DRY, HOWEVER
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE FOR THE AFTERNOON
THANKS TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, THEN GIVING WAY TO LIKELY
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THE LLJ
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BY THEN.
THE PROGRESSION OF THINGS INTO TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER INTERESTING AS
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN EASTERN CANADA SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS RESULTS IN THE
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT EITHER NEAR OR CLOSE TO OUR AREA, AND WILL
KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE OUR NORTHERN CWA DRYS OUT BY THIS TIME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRIES TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
CHRISTMAS EVE - CHRISTMAS DAY...
THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY IN LIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR NEAR OUR
AREA WASHES OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCES PRETTY SMALL HERE AND
THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
THE PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MUCH, IF
ANY, RAINFALL FROM EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN,
IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND NOT AN ALL DAY THING. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA. CHRISTMAS EVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHS IN THE 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREE MARK. FROM
A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT, DEFINITELY WILL BE MORE LIKE A "MELE
KALIKIMAKA" TYPE OF CHRISTMAS THAN A "I'M DREAMING OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS". KEEP DREAMING FOR NEXT YEAR I SUPPOSE. WILL NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LOT OF MENTION OF LINGERING AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES FROM
EARLY THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT OVERALL QPF TOTALS THROUGH THAT TIME
LOOK VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR MOST.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND TIME FRAME AS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN A
BIT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE, AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT PASSES
LATER FRIDAY WITH A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING
LLWS AHEAD OF IT (MOSTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS LEX/RGA), A BAND
OF BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT, AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...SRW
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